10 Early Numbers Of Note Down On The Farm
These Baltimore Orioles prospects are putting up some interesting numbers early on in 2025.
Written by: Nick Stevens
It’s still only April, but we’ve got a decent sample of minor league games up to this point and we’re seeing plenty of positives down on the farm. Here are 10 fun, early numbers to pay attention to as we prepare to enter the long summer months of baseball.
OF Vance Honeycut’s contact: No one is questioning the defense or speed when it comes to 2024 first-rounder Vance Honeycutt, but the bat is going to be heavily scrutinized every step of the way. After an alarming amount of swing and miss and low contact numbers in college, Honeycutt had 56 pro plate appearances between Delmarva and Aberdeen last year, posting a contact rate of 59% with a swinging-strike rate of 20.6%. Rough. Now 64 plate appearances into the season, Honeycutt’s contact rate is up to 75.2% and his swinging-strike rate is down to 8.9%. It’s been a promising start for the former Tar Heel.
RHP Braxton Bragg’s entire resume: The 2023 8th round pick out of Dallas Baptist spent the entire 2024 season in Delmarva, striking out 30% of hitters and walking 5% with a 3.13 FIP across 96 IP. After three starts in Aberdeen this season, he was promoted to Double-A. In his 16 innings of work, Bragg posted a 0.00 ERA, matched his 30% strikeout rate from last season, and limited opponents to a .109 average against. Opponents swung more against Bragg this year but made less contact. That’s fun.
***This was written before Bragg made his Double-A debut on Wednesday afternoon. His line: 4.1 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 8 K in relief of Trevor Rogers***
RHP Alex Pham’s strikeout rate: It’s a joke that this guy is still in Double-A. Could he hit a wall in Triple-A? Absolutely. What are the realistic odds he becomes a major league contributor? The data says very low. But give him a chance. 200 innings in Double-A for a Top 30 prospect is malpractice. Through 4 starts this season, Pham is posting a career-high 37.7% strikeout rate. Contact against Pham has dropped nearly 6% down to 66%. Refusing to get rid of some AAA arm with an ERA north of 8 while Pham’s serving a life sentence in Bowie is quite the choice.
RHP Michael Forret’s ERA: This was going to be Forret’s batting average against, which was .062, 2nd best in all of minor league baseball (among qualified pitchers), but he gave up two hits on Wednesday night, which skyrocketed his average against to .115. Jorge Mateo would kill for that average. Through 19.2 IP this season, Forret has a 0.92 ERA, a 0.66 WHIP, and 26 K/6 BB. He walked 5 in his first two starts and just 1 over his last two (10 IP, 16 K). Challenge completed. A move up to Double-A is in order.
SS Griff O’Ferrall’s home run total: It’s just two, but they were both impressive. O’Ferrall’s first career home run came against Paul Blackburn, a major league arm on rehab. He then hit his second career home run the very next day, an opposite-field shot. He’s already 25% of the way towards matching his career total in college. Possessing one of the top hit tools in the system, O’Ferrall has been more selective in his swinging this season and it’s resulted in even more contact (89.3%) and a lower swinging-strike rate (3.6%)
RHP Keagan Gillies’ walk rate: Gillies has made six appearances in Double-A this season, posting a 1.35 ERA with three saves in three opportunities. In 47 Double-A innings last season, Gillies struck out 26% of hitters and walked 12.1%. This year he’s at a 31.8% K rate and 0.00% walk rate. Someone let Gillies and Pham know a silver SUV will be parked outside Prince George’s Stadium at 3 pm today. Don’t ask questions, just bring your bags. Get ready to learn Nah-Fuck. (Peter Van Loon and Ryan Long should hop in as well. There’s room and I have snacks.)
RHP Levi Wells’ walk rate: Someone on X told me Levi Wells sucks because of the High-A ERA he took a screenshot of. Sigh. The Orioles drafted Wells out of Texas State because of his high-quality stuff and after a shoulder injury took him out for 5 weeks and a slow build up again set him back a few more weeks, Wells was hot down the stretch last season in High-A. A lot of people learned the name after an electric spring training performance and Spring Breakout game and luckily the Orioles don’t use screenshots of ERA to make developmental decisions. He was assigned to Double-A to begin the year and is currently walking 4% of hitters.
OF Jud Fabian’s contact numbers: The Orioles really wanted Fabian in 2021 but the Red Sox decided to swoop in and take him. Fabian told them to kick rocks, he returned to Florida, and the Orioles grabbed him 67th overall the following year. A true centerfielder, Fabian’s defense is art, the power is impressive, and the walks are bountiful. Last year in a small Triple-A sample, Fabian had a 41% strikeout rate, an 8.8% walk rate, a max EV of 109 mph, a 55% contact rate, and a 20.4% swinging-strike rate. So far in 2025, Fabian has a 28% strikeout rate, a 16% walk rate, a max EV north of 111 mph, a 62.6% contact rate, and a 15.8% swinging-strike rate. He’s never going to hit for a high average or find himself anywhere close to the top of contact leaderboards, but his overall game should play well in the big leagues.
OF Dylan Beavers’ turnaround: Through the first two series of the season, Norfolk OF Dylan Beavers was hitting .161 with a 47% strikeout rate, a .444 OPS, and a wRC+ of 29. Since then, which has been 11 games, Beavers is hitting .316 with a 19% strikeout rate (and 19% walk rate), a .973 OPS, and a 170 wRC+. With both Fabian and Beavers being Rule 5 eligible this upcoming winter, and the contract statuses of Cedric Mullins and Tyler O’Neill, it will be fun to see how this plays out for both Beavers and Fabian, if they continue on their positive trends.
RHP Kyle Brnovich’s Resurgence Tour: Brnovich didn’t pitch professionally in 2019 after being drafted by the Angels out of Elon. 2020 was wiped due to covid. 2022 and 2023 were a no go after Tommy John surgery. There’s no mileage on this arm. He was limited to 75 Double-A innings last year where he struck out 24.7% of batters and walked 9%. He’s in Triple-A this year where he has a 31.2% strikeout rate and a 7.9% walk rate. The fastball velo now averages 93 mph and he can hold the velo late into outings (before surgery he was into the 80s by the end of his outings) with 18+ inches of IVB, the changeup is getting 16+ inches of movement with decent whiff numbers, and the slider has a 48% whiff rate, all with 7 feet of extension. The five-pitch mix is working well, with three of his offerings grading out as above-average offerings (FB, CH, CB). He’s now on the cusp of potentially getting his shot in the majors.
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