Written by: Bob Phelan
This has become one of my favorite exercises over the offseason to get excited about the minor league season coming up. Even with a bit of a mass exodus over the past 12 months there is more than enough to look forward to thanks to the depth of the system. Heston Kjerstad and Jackson Holliday have graduated into full blown major leaguers and Coby Mayo is a good spring training away from doing the same. And for a front office that has been accused of prospect hoarding here is the list of players they traded away in 2024: SS Joey Ortiz, LHP DL Hall, 2B Connor Norby, OF Kyle Stowers, INF Mac Horvath, RHP Jackson Baumeister, OF Matthew Etzel, RHP Seth Johnson, RHP Moises Chace, LHP Trey McGough. Despite those losses the Orioles still have a robust top 50 prospect list (that we are counting down over on Patreon, sign up!), particularly on the pitching and international side of things. With that said, here are my projected opening day rosters for the top five minor league affiliates as well as my “watchability rating” for each one.
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AAA Norfolk
CF Jud Fabian
RF Dylan Beavers
C Samuel Basallo
DH Jordyn Adams
1B TT Bowens
3B Vimael Machin
LF Hudson Haskin
2B Jeremiah Jackson
SS Anthony Servideo
Bench: Franklin Barreto, Nick Gordon, Maverick Handley, Noelberth Romero, Blake Hunt
LHP Trevor Rogers
RHP Chayce McDermott
RHP Brandon Young
RHP Thad Ward
RHP Alex Pham
RHP Kyle Brnovich
Bullpen: Kade Strowd, Keagan Gillies, Luis Gonzalez, Matt Bowman, Dylan Heid, Peter Van Loon, Justin Armbruester, Robinson Martinez, Yaramil Hiraldo, Raul Alcantara, Rodolfo Martinez, Gerald Ogando
Watchability Rating: 7.5/10
Norfolk is all about Samuel Basallo this year, as long as he is there. Which honestly should be most if not all of the season. Let him cook in 2025 so he can win Rookie of the Year in 2026. Other than him I’m probably only going to be tuning in to AAA over the other levels if the top of the lineup is due up or I want to get a look at the pitcher on the mound. Jud Fabian and Dylan Beavers are the two outfield prospects who could next make their major league debut but neither is knocking on the door yet either. They have been higher on our top prospect list than the other at certain points of their career. Beavers needs to find some consistency and Fabian needs to continue to cut down on the swing and miss but both have exciting tools if they can do so.
On the mound it is a bunch of guys that could and probably will help the big league club at some point during the 2025 season. Rogers, McDermott, and Young will enter spring training competing for a rotation spot along with Cade Povich who I have beating them in this scenario. Thad Ward is a guy with MLB experience and still a little bit of upside that the O’s claimed on waivers. Pham and Brnovich are probably more bullpen options later in the year than in the rotation. Speaking of bullpen options there are plenty here who should see ML time including Matt Bowman, Kade Strowd, Luis Gonzalez, and at least one of the flurry of minor league signings.
AA Chesapeake
CF Enrique Bradfield Jr
2B Tavian Josenberger
C Creed Willems
LF Reed Trimble
3B Max Wagner
SS Frederick Bencosme
RF Douglas Hodo
DH Colin Burns
1B Ryan Higgins
Bench: Silas Ardoin, Carter Young, Adam Retzbach, Connor Pavolony
RHP Cameron Weston
RHP Patrick Reilly
RHP Edgar Portes
RHP Zach Fruit
RHP Trace Bright
RHP Ryan Long
Bullpen: Yaqui Rivera, Daniel Lloyd, Logan Rinehart, Kyle Virbitsky, Zane Barnhart, Cooper Chandler, Bradley Brehmer, Houston Roth
Watchability Rating: 7/10
As you’ll see the Aberdeen opening day roster is loaded so Bowie, I mean Chesapeake, will become more exciting as the season goes on but as it is there are a bunch of interesting position players with upside but outside of Bradfield and maybe Willems there isn’t anyone where you’re mad if you missed their at bat. EBJ’s development in 2024 was fun to watch and as long as that continues he should make it to AAA Norfolk in the second half to set himself up for his major league debut sometime in 2026. Willems gets overshadowed by the future international superstar who has always been a step ahead of him but he has gotten better and better every year. Trimble needs to stay healthy, Wagner missed most of 2024 and has some catching up to do, Bencosme is a future role player, Josenberger is a trendy breakout pick, Hodo continues to defy expectations, and Ardoin has backup catcher stamped on his forehead.
We dubbed 2024 the ‘Year of the Pitcher’ on the podcast and that turned out to be true to people paying attention so I’m curious what the theme for 2025 is going to be because the pitching is still very prevalent. Maybe ‘The Cavalry 2.0’? I originally had Weston on Norfolk’s roster but I think he dips his toe back in the AA water before moving up. Reilly was acquired from the Pirates in exchange for Billy Cook and he immediately slotted into the thick of things with the next wave of pitching prospects. Portes, Fruit, and Bright each have big upside for different reasons and Yaqui Rivera, who was the player to be named later in the Cole Sulser/Tanner Scott trade with the Marlins in 2022, has developed into a very fun pure relief prospect.
A+ Aberdeen
LF Austin Overn
SS Griff O’Ferrall
CF Vance Honeycutt
C Ethan Anderson
1B Ryan Stafford
DH Thomas Sosa
2B Aron Estrada
3B Leandro Arias
RF Jake Cunningham
Bench: Aneudis Mordan, Jalen Vasquez, Anderson De Los Santos, Cole Urman, Adam Crampton
LHP Luis De Leon
RHP Michael Forret
RHP Nestor German
RHP Trey Gibson
RHP Chase Allsup
RHP Braxton Bragg
Bullpen: Teddy Sharkey, Blake Money, Riley Cooper, Ty Weatherly, Levi Wells, Preston Johnson, Deivy Cruz, Evan Yates
Watchability Rating: 9.5/10
Aberdeen is always a lot of fun at the beginning of each season since they moved up to take the Frederick Key’s spot as the Orioles’ high A team because they typically house most of the previous year’s college draft picks in their first full seasons. Add to that the burgeoning international scene and it’s just getting better and better. Honeycutt is the toolsy first round pick, O’Ferrall is being comped to Joey Ortiz and Jordan Westburg in some places (with less power), Anderson is a catcher but more of a hitter and can play first base/corner outfield, Overn is looking like a steal where he was selected and is a popular breakout pick, and Stafford is a pure hitter that I might start comparing to Connor Norby. On the international side we have last year’s breakout Aron Estrada who has developed more power than we expected this early in his career, Thomas Sosa who is a raw hitter with huge power but saw his swing decisions improve rapidly in 2024, Leandro Arias who I think could be this year’s international breakout, and Aneudis Mordan an offensive minded catching prospect.
The Ironbirds pitching staff is absurd. De Leon, Forret, German, and Gibson are four of the five young pitchers who I think could earn top 100 prospect in baseball consideration sometime in 2025 (Keeler Morfe being the fifth). Massive helium here, its going to be exciting night in and night out. Allsup was the first pitcher the Orioles took in last year’s draft, a distinction that has had some success the last couple years (Trace Bright in 2022, Jackson Baumeister in 2023). Bragg, Money, and Cooper are guys whose performance deserved a promotion in 2024 but there just wasn’t any room. Teddy Sharkey is the most exciting reliever prospect since Felix Bautista, please stay healthy… And Preston Johnson is one of my breakout picks now that’s he is in his second season post Tommy John Surgery.
A Delmarva
CF Elis Cuevas
SS Luis Almeyda
1B Joshua Liranzo
C Miguel Rodriguez
2B Edwin Amparo
LF Braylin Tavera
RF Raylin Ramos
3B Angel Tejada
DH Colin Tuft
Bench: Fernando Peguero, Edrei Campos, Steven Ondina, Maikel Hernandez, Yasmil Bucce
RHP Keeler Morfe
LHP Juan Rojas
RHP Yeiber Cartaya
LHP Carson Dorsey
RHP Christian Rodriguez
RHP Jack Crowder
Bullpen: Bryan Bautista, Wilton Rondon, Andres Parra, Eccel Correa, Sebastian Gongora, Jacob Cravey, Trent Turzenski
Watchability Rating: 8/10
I talked about Morfe earlier but he is a unicorn when it comes to international pitchers in the Orioles system. He had a poor 2023 season but was electric in the Domincan Summer League to start 2024 and then completely skipped the FCL, do not pass GO, straight to Delmarva at age 18. New short king in town with Jean Pinto no longer in the organization (RIP). Dorsey, Rodriguez, Crowder, and Gongora are 2024 draft picks getting their start and we’ll see which ones break out. Rojas was the youngest part of the Jorge Lopez trade with the Twins (Cade Povich, Yennier Cano, and currently with the Padres Juan Nunez being the others) and Cartaya is one of those late cheap international signings the O’s tend to make that are late bloomers but have upside.
Tavera, Almeyda, and Maikel Hernandez were the headliners of their respective signing classes but have yet to perform as expected whether it be because of injuries, disappointing performance, or both. Cuevas, Miguel Rodriguez, and Edwin Amparo on the other hand have earned our attention due to their performance on the field. Liranzo and Ramos were both guys that captured our attention in 2023 but had their 2024 season derailed by injuries. Tejada continues to be an underrated player in the system (including myself here) and still only 20 years old. Tuft was an eighth round pick last year that struggled in his brief taste with the Shorebirds following the draft.
FCL Orioles
SS Elvin Garcia
3B Emilio Sanchez
LF Jordan Sanchez
RF Stiven Martinez
1B Felix Amparo
C Adriander Mejia
CF Nate George
2B DJ Layton
DH Jemone Nuel
Bench: Jose Mejia, Braylon Whitaker, Andrew Tess, Juan Ortega, Luis Guevara, Saul Gomez
RHP Esteban Mejia
RHP Jesus Palacios
LHP Francisco Morao
RHP Adrian Heredia
RHP Esteban Luna
RHP Kevin Velasco
Bullpen: Andy Fabian, Jeyderson Mora, Luis Espinoza, Juan Rasquin, Henry Tejada, Raymond Sosa, Aneuris Rodriguez, Carter Rustad
Watchability Rating: 8.5/10
Apparently we’re getting closer to being able to watch a video feed of FCL games and the plan is to institute at least a stationary camera at home plate like they did for DSL games in 2024. With all the young talent consistently running through the team it will be nice to eventually have more than bad fan cams and random Instagram posts to look at. But speaking of talent, the FCL Orioles will have four high school draft picks – DJ Layton, Nate George, Braylon Whitaker, and Andrew Tess which is a lot from a front office that has leaned very heavily on college players. The 2024 DSL squads were the most loaded we’ve ever seen and most of those players will be starting their season here and maybe even moving on to Delmarva afterwards with an earlier start. Those players include Emilio Sanchez, Jordan Sanchez, Elvin Garcia, Stiven Martinez, Felix Amparo, Adriander Mejia, Jose Mejia, and Jemone Nuel. I predict that at least one of those guys will be a top 100 overall prospect at some point in their minor league careers. And you can add the top three pitchers to that list too – Esteban Mejia, Jesus Palacios, and Francisco Morao.
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