25 Orioles prospect predictions for 2025
How many of these Orioles prospect predictions will come true?
Written by: Nick Stevens
The inspiration for this week’s post comes from a recent article written by Jake Rill over at MLB.com, “25 Orioles predictions for the 2025 season”.
Now just days away from both the big league squad and minor leaguers reporting to spring training, I thought I would do a prospect version of Jake’s prediction piece. Will I hit .300 with these predictions? Probably not. But let’s have some fun anyway.
Samuel Basallo gets just a cup of coffee in the big leagues this season, with an eye towards 2026 Rookie of the Year honors and a PPI pick.
He doesn’t turn 21 until August and there’s still plenty Basallo can work on both with the bat and behind the plate before getting full-time big league duties, but his growth in 2025 earns him a cup of coffee at the end of the year where he hits his first career home run in Toronto in mid-September.
Enrique Bradfield Jr steals 80 bases.
Bradfield stole 74 in 108 games last season, so 80 isn’t a huge stretch. But Double-A and Triple-A catchers are a little better than A-ball backstops. Only Chandler Simpson stole more bags than Bradfield in the minors last year. He swiped 104.
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Coby Mayo hits 22 home runs in the majors.
Jim Callis recently predicted 26 as Mayo wins Rookie of the Year honors. Jake Rill’s prediction was “approaching 20”. I’ll go in between and say 22.
The “Vance Honeycutt is a bust” screams get loud.
We all know the glaring issues with Honeycutt’s bat and saw his less than inspiring cup of coffee in A-ball last year after the draft. The Orioles drafted him with a plan in mind and belief in getting more out of his hit tool. Maybe he doesn’t pan out, that’s a real possibility, but he’s a project with an incredibly high ceiling. When the baseball card stats don’t pop as he settles into his first full pro-year and works in adjustments made by the organization, the “he’s a bust” crowd will be loud. Don’t be that person so quickly.
Michael Forret ends the year as a Top 100 prospect on at least one list.
Frothy prediction for a 14th round pick out of the JUCO ranks. If you listen to our show regularly, you know exactly why this isn’t a crazy prediction.
Cameron Weston wins the 2025 Jim Palmer Minor League Pitcher of the Year award.
Weston’s first full, healthy year consisted of 109 innings with a 29% strikeout rate, a .195 average against, and a 2.97 ERA, mostly at the Double-A level. With a deceptive delivery, a pair of secondary offerings that produce eye-opening whiff rates, and the ability to effectively keep the ball on the ground, Weston has quietly established himself as one of the better pitching prospects in the system.
Griff O’Ferrall ends the year in Triple-A.
He may not be an electric prospect with a super high ceiling, but O’Ferrall will get the job done. He should move through the system quickly.
You likely have no idea who Yeiber Cartaya is. You will by the end of the season.
If you already know, you’re a real one.
One of Jud Fabian/Dylan Beavers is traded at some point.
There are many variables involved here but to keep this short and sweet, one gets moved. It could just as easily be another high-profile outfielder currently in the system, but with both of these guys being Rule 5 eligible, one may get moved IF they both are producing and take a step forward in Triple-A this season.
Creed Willems flirts with 25 home runs
Willems hit 17 last season in 98 games between High-A/Double-A. As long as he stays healthy, he will spend much of the year in Double-A, using Prince George’s Stadium as a launching pad.
Tavian Josenberger makes it back-to-back seasons with 50 steals.
He was roommates with Enrique Bradfield in 2024. Fastest pair of roommates in minor league ball? Probably.
Samuel wins the Brooks Robinson award for top Orioles minor league hitter.
I just needed an easy one here.
All four affiliate pitching staffs repeat their strikeout dominance.
All four staffs ranked in the top three of their respective league in strikeouts last season. With Norfolk leading the way at 1,461, good for 2nd most in all of minor league baseball. This year, Chesapeake leads the way.
Norfolk won’t be able to rely on Chayce McDermott for their strikeout total in 2025.
A big reason why Norfolk ranked 2nd in all of MiLB in strikeouts was McDermott’s 144, which ranked 2nd in the league. The majority of his innings will be in the big leagues.
Trace Bright is added to the 40-man roster at the end of the year.
Once again, it’s a big Rule 5 class. We will very likely see a few Billy Cook or Trey McGough type trades this season. Bright could be moved in one of those deals, but I think he stays and gets added to the 40-man after a successful 2025.
Patrick Reilly leads all Orioles minor league pitchers in strikeouts
He struck out 146 in 119 innings last season, mostly with Pittsburgh. The Orioles have had a full offseason to put their touches on him. Maybe they unlock a little more. Also, fantastic trade to get a pitcher with Reilly’s upside for Billy Cook, who wasn’t going to crack the big leagues in Baltimore.
Thomas Sosa has a power outburst.
He’s listed at 6’3” and 160 pounds on his player page. He’s closer to 220 now. The exit velo data is eye-popping. He just turned 20 two weeks ago and finished last year in High-A. The breakout arrives in 2025.
The Andrew Cashner trade story is completed.
The biggest thing this trade brought to Birdland was Twitter copypasta that still gets used to this day. For those of us who stay connected to social media at an unhealthy level, we can all recite it word-for-word by heart. As for actual players the Orioles acquired, the story ends this year. Elio Prado was never able to catch fire, or produce much of anything, and was picked up by the Phillies in the minor league Rule 5 back in December. Noelberth Romero is still in the org but plays at a different level each week as a bounce around bench bat. He gets released at some point this year and the trade history is complete.
Raul Alcantara reaches the major leagues at some point this season.
Alcantara moved primarily to the bullpen last year in Double-A while in the Mariners organization. He signed a minor league deal with the Orioles this offseason. I have a thing for lefties who flirt with 100 mph.
Carter Baumler logs 50 innings.
This would actually be a massive victory. Senior year of high school gets cut short due to covid, 2021 is wiped out due to Tommy John surgery, and he’s logged 11, 17, and 20 innings over the last three seasons. Hunter Harvey overcame half a decade of injury after injury and eventually settled into a major league career as a reliever. Until he says he’s done, I’ll keep hoping Baumler can finally find health and success.
There will be 57 articles written about Keeler Morfe.
Yes, I wrote one as well. But I was the very first. Is it a “sleeper” article if doesn’t include Keeler Morfe? No. No it’s not.
We get proof that Mishael Deson is still alive.
Back in 2020, you may remember that the Orioles traded Mychal Givens to the Rockies for Tyler Nevin, Terrin Vavra, and a player to be named later. That PTBNL became outfield prospect Mishael Deson. He looked great in the FCL in 2021. Was overmatched in Low-A in 2022. Did not play in 2023 or 2024. But he’s still on the roster? Was he ever real? I’m questioning my sanity at this point.
The Orioles select a pitcher the earliest they ever have in the Mike Elias era in the 2025 MLB Draft.
People love to complain about the Orioles and how/when they draft pitchers. I’m currently chest deep in draft research, all of which can be found in the Patron section of our Discord, with occasional articles coming out here on Substack throughout the college baseball season. I love this class of pitchers. It’s deep, fun, and very talented. At least one will be selected earlier than ever before by the Orioles.
Brandon Young settles into the majors as a reliever.
I guarantee you that you will not find a bigger fan of Brandon Young other than myself, but I dove into my hesitations about his future in the big leagues on a recent episode, and I’m sure we’ll dive into all of that again as the season gets started. But even with the questions I have, I do think he can be effective as a big league reliever. Now on the 40-man roster, he gets his shot at some point in 2025.
O’s fans learn of a BIG secret down on the farm.
Did you know that back in 2023, the Orioles used a 13th round draft pick on a 7-foot pitcher out of the D2 ranks? That pitcher is Jared Beck. The overall stats aren’t eye-popping from last year, but he’s a reliever who had a disastrous first month of the season. The numbers were very good month after month afterwards. Transitioning from D2 baseball to the pros is hard enough, doing so when you are a 7-foot pitcher doesn’t make things easier. Once he gets to Double-A and starts having some success, more fans will be asking where Beck came from.
Have a bold prediction for the 2025 season? Drop yours in the comments below!
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