Baltimore Orioles 2024 MLB Mock Draft (Version 1)
The Baltimore Orioles have six picks within the first five rounds this year.
Written by: Nick Stevens
We’re only about three weeks away from the 2024 MLB Draft, one of my favorite events of the year. This year’s three-day event will run from July 14th-16th, with the Orioles having three picks within the top 61 after Gunnar Henderson’s Rookie of the Year honors awarded the Orioles pick #32.
I’m supposed to be packing for a week-long beach trip with the family, but I’ve been diving into my draft research pretty heavily this past week and spent a lot of time Friday night playing around with Prospects Live’s draft simulator tool (must be a Prospects Live patron to access), so I thought I would put together a quick mock with some initial thoughts.
The mock is five rounds (max allowed on the simulator) with the program auto-picking for every team except for the Orioles, who I will make the selection for.
Round 1, Pick 22: OF/RHP Carson Benge, Oklahoma State
I’ve been completely Benge-pilled lately. Looking at the Prospects Live board, Iowa RHP Brody Brecht, Arkansas high school OF Slade Caldwell, and Mississippi State OF Dakota Jordan are some of the names at the top of the board. Brecht has been a popular pick among national mocks here, and for good reason. Brecht’s stuff is elite and he’s only just recently focused solely on pitching after playing football at Iowa as well. He’s shown improvements down the stretch in 2024 but I just can’t let Benge sit there and pass on him. There will be plenty of pitching talent, guys with traits the Orioles covet, available in late rounds.
Listed at 6’1”/184, Benge is a left-handed hitting outfielder and right-handed pitcher who has been up to 96 mph (TJ surgery in college). He hit 18 home runs with the Cowboys, along with 24 doubles and 49 walks to 51 strikeouts (16.1% BB/ 16.8% K). The power has really shined this season and Benge was one of the bigger risers in the country in terms of contact rate, jumping from 77% to nearly 84%, per Baseball America (to go along with a chase rate of less than 20%).
I don’t need to see him pitch. Let the bat eat. It also wouldn’t be an Orioles draft if they didn’t go the Oklahoma State route so the rules state this pick has to be Benge.
PPI Picks, Pick 32: SS Kyle DeBarge, Louisiana-Lafayette
Looking at the board, there are some Friday night arms from Power 5 teams, but I’d prefer not to reach on potential back-end rotation arms/relievers when I can get more attractive data darling arms later on. Tennessee IF Billy Amick is here, as is Kansas State SS Kaelen Culpepper, LSU IF Tommy Tanks (White), and Northeastern OF Mike Sirota.
All but Sirota have been mocked to the Orioles, and while Sirota didn’t live up to the hype this year, he showcased plenty of hitting metrics that point to his potential. But let’s put some respect on the Sun Belt Conference and go with the Sun Belt Player of the Year in SS Kyle DeBarge. The college middle infield group is thinner than normal and I want to make sure I walk away with a top talent at this position.
DeBarge hit 21 home runs this season and struck out just 10% of the time. Don’t be fooled by his 5’9” frame. He’s an elite contact hitter with speed and appears to have the profile of both someone the Orioles tend to be coveting more lately, and someone who could tap into a notable amount of more power, something the Orioles have been very good at pulling out of guys.
He’s all over public rankings, with Eric Longenhagen over at FanGraphs having him as the 8th-ranked prospect on his Board. Longenhagen has never cared about other public rankings and isn’t afraid to stick to his guns on his evaluations. He has him ranked that high for a reason and I respect it.
Round 2, Pick 61: RHP Tyson Neighbors, Kansas State
UVA SS Griff O’Ferrall and TCU SS Anthony Silva are here, two guys I love but Silva had a very disappointing 2024 season and I don’t mind passing on O’Ferrall’s high floor after rolling the dice on Debarge’s high ceiling. There’s some high school upside here as well and college starting pitching who my eyes are being drawn to but I’ve run through a few of these mocks and I know I can get higher upside talent later on in the draft.
Let’s have some fun with this pick and go with RHP Tyson Neighbors- I feel like daydreaming about having two absolute alpha dogs in Teddy Sharkey and Neighbors in the same bullpen. OSU’s Aiden May was the other strong candidate here.
MLB Pipeline comps Neighbors to Craig Kimbrel, possessing a fastball that gets up to 99 mph with 20+ inches of IVB (elite), along with a high-spin slider and curveball. Joe Doyle at Future Stats Series notes a potential starter if he can develop a changeup, but he’s arguably the top relief prospect in the draft and could be a quick riser through the system.
Round 3, Pick 97: RHP Daniel Eagen, Presbyterian
There are a trio of college arms I like near the top of the board here- Kahl Stephen of Mississippi State, Gage Jump of LSU, and Ryan Prager of Texas A&M, but Presbyterian RHP Daniel Eagen is here and I’m not letting him slip by. I had added him to my spreadsheet when doing some more research this week and later that afternoon, Lance Brozdowksi appeared on MLB Network from the draft combine and highlighted Eagan as a guy he was very eager to watch after he stood out among all the arms at the combine when looking through the pitch data of everyone attending.
Eagen struck out 122 batters in 77 IP this season, seeing his K/9 jump from 10/9 to more than 14/9, while walking a respectable 3.24/9 IP.
Round 4, Pick 127: 1B/RHP Cole Mathis, College of Charleston
I have seen this name floated around as a possible early, money-saving signing but he’s someone getting very little to no hype despite putting up a fantastic season at College of Charleston and on the Cape.
Listed at 6’1”/210 pounds, Mathis hit 14 home runs this season, walked 46 times while striking out 32 times, and even stole 14 bags. This coming off a summer in which he OPS’d over 1.000 with 11 home runs in the Cap Code League at just 19 years of age.
Mathis won’t turn 21 until the week after the draft, combines high EVs with an 84% contact rate and 16% chase rate. Lance Brozdowski comped him to former Orioles prospect and current DBack Christian Walker.
Round 5, Pick 160: RHP Nate Knowles, William and Mary
I could have gone in 50 different directions here but I’m going to stick close to Baltimore, and put my extreme anti-William and Mary bias aside (shoutout to the fellow JMU grads) for this pick and go with RHP Nate Knowles.
Random fact, Knowles just missed crossing over with Orioles hitting coordinator Brink Ambler at William and Mary. On the mound, Knowles pitched to a 2.48 ERA across 80 innings this season, striking out 112 and walking 39. It was the 9th lowest ERA in the country. He also took the ball against UVA and Duke this year, throwing a combined 8 innings against the two powerhouse ACC schools, striking out 9 and allowing just one earned run. William and Mary analytics has the juicy info on his stuff-
I’ll do one more of these closer to the draft. Probably do a podcast version as well sometime soon. In the meantime, make sure you’re subscribed to the pod- Orioles On The Verge.