Biggest Movers On Our 2025 Top Orioles Prospects List
These are the biggest risers and fallers on our first update.
Written by: Nick Stevens
Earlier this month, we made the first update to our 2025 Top 50 Orioles Prospects list, an exercise we undertake the first week of each month during the season to make sure we update our list accordingly as we watch these prospects over the course of the season and get more information/data on players.
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The first update is always the most interesting because we get to see all of the changes that players have made during the offseason. Which lesser-known prospects have started to break out? Which breakouts from the previous year aren’t living up to the hype? Which breakouts appear to be for real? These updates allow us to look at all of this plus more. A little over a month into the MiLB regular season, here are the biggest risers on our top 50 list.
RHP Braxton Bragg
Bragg jumped up an astronomical 30 spots on our list (13th overall) after a dominant start to the season. Bragg put up very solid numbers last year in Delmarva, including a 30% strikeout rate and a 5% walk rate, but the former Nebraska/Dallas Baptist arm didn’t get the bump up to High-A at any point last season. The stuff was good and the delivery provided a different look, but the vibe was more of hoping Bragg could emerge as an intriguing relief option for the organization, and his lack of a promotion, despite the good numbers, reinforced that.
Bragg started the 2025 season in High-A, tossed 16.1 scoreless innings across three starts with a 37% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. He was quickly moved up to Double-A where, at the time of this writing, Bragg has thrown 17.1 innings with a 0.80 ERA, 35.1% strikeout rate and a 7.5% walk rate. Opposing hitters are swinging more against Bragg this year, but they are making less contact and he’s done a fantastic job of getting ahead early, pushing his first-strike percentage up about 10% compared to last year.
He’s reportedly joined the kick-change revolution and his fastball was sitting in the mid-90s early on the year, touching 96-97 mph. After watching his first outing of the year back with Aberdeen, it was clear that the stuff had taken a jump forward and I noted that 100 mph was in the tank and coming soon. Not too long after getting promoted to Double-A, Bragg was lighting up the radar gun with 100 mph bullets against Hartford.
I’ve noted many times on recent podcasts that it’s time to stop babying these promising prospects, especially the pitchers. If they are showing high octane stuff and producing results, move them up. If Bragg is going to continue the early success he’s had in Double-A, he should be in Norfolk’s rotation within the next few weeks.
RHP Levi Wells
Stuff. Stuff. Stuff. It’s why I spent all offseason hyping up Levi Wells every single chance I could because the stuff is for real and his shoulder injury last year prevented him from showing it off.
Wells is up 26 spots (15th overall) on our list after starting the year in Double-A and continuing to impress after opening eyes back in spring training and during the Spring Breakout game.
Through 26.1 innings, Wells owns a 3.08 ERA (with a FIP and xFIP in line very close to that) with a 20.7% strikeout rate and a 5.4% walk rate. The strikeout rate is down from his 26% strikeout rate last season, but he’s cut his walk rate in half. That’s the biggest positive sign so far this season, seeing as one of the bigger knocks on Wells going back to before he was drafted by Baltimore, has been the potential control issues.
RHP Juan Nunez
Nunez wasn’t in the organization when we released our initial Top 50 list after being selected by the San Diego Padres in the Rule 5 draft. I thought for sure AJ Preller would AJ Preller and there was very, very little chance of Nunez coming back to the Orioles, but he’s back and has been working out of the bullpen in Double-A, until he made his first start of the season in game two of a doubleheader recently.
Nunez, now ranked 28th, is sporting a career-high 38% strikeout rate and his 4.66 ERA comes with a 2.61 FIP. When he throws strikes, he’s been uber effective, but the first-strike percentage is at a woeful 38% and walks have been a major issue. He’s logged just 9 innings on the year and spent the vast majority of last season hurt, so let’s re-evaluate later in the year. The stuff is too good to not give him a longer leash to settle into the Double-A level.
RHP Kyle Brnovich
Brnovich wasn’t ranked to begin the year, but he’s up to #39 now after finally getting back to Triple-A this season. With the ability to dig into the stuff more, Brnovich has seen his fastball velo climb since pre-Tommy John and we’ve seen him use the slider much more. A command artist early on in his career, Brnovich is walking a hair less than 10% of batters he’s faced this year, but has been solid and consistent otherwise.
With his fastball now better suited to face major league hitters, he could potentially get a chance in the big leagues out of the bullpen, where he could be effective in short outings. Considering that at this point last year Brnovich was an afterthought in the organization, it’s been a pleasant surprise to see him work his way to the doorsteps of the big leagues. He should get an opportunity at some point this season.
OF Nate George
I had George in the mid-40’s on my personal list, but he didn’t make our final Top 50 coming into the season. The word out of extended spring training was that George shined and backed that report up by hitting a home run on Opening Day in the FCL. Through just five games now, George is 6-20 (.333 average) with 1 BB/4 K and a pair of home runs. The athleticism and speed are eye-opening and there’s strong belief in his power potential, but most pre-draft reports questioned the hit tool, mainly because he was a cold-weather high school prospect with limited run on the showcase circuit. All four high school picks from last year’s draft class will be fascinating follows this season as they kick off their pro careers, but the shine around George continues to grow brighter and brighter the more we learn about him. He’s up to #41 on our list with the arrow pointing way up.
Fallers
RHP Trace Bright
Bright fell 11 spots to 31st overall. Through six starts, Bright has an ERA just south of 7.00, with a strikeout rate of 18%, a walk rate of 16%, and a called-strike plus whiff percentage of 25%. We’ve been believers of Bright for the last few years and we haven’t been the only ones (Read: Thomas Nestico, 5 Under The Radar Pitching Prospects) but he hasn’t been able to build on his early 2024 success and things don’t appear to be getting any better in his now third stint in Double-A. With a 70 grade curveball, there may still be a path for him as a reliever. Carlos Tavera was finally moved to the Norfolk’s bullpen this year and his plus stuff has played much better. Perhaps Bright can follow the same path.
RHP Edgar Portes
Portes has been an unknown prospect in the system for the last few years. He struggled as a 19 year old in Delmarva, but had a much stronger second run through Low-A in 2023, followed by an even stronger 2024 campaign in High-A. Now in Double-A, Portes has allowed 9 ER in 9 IP, with 9 BB and 12 K. He just went on the IL with an undisclosed injury. Maybe that was having an impact? Regardless, while the slider has become his main weapon, the fastball needs more and hasn’t been showing that in Double-A. Portes is down 16 spots to #38.
Frederick Bencosme
It’s been a long, hard fall for Bencosme this season. Once a consensus Top 30 prospect, Bencosme was a below league-average bat in Double-A last season, but maintained good walk and strikeout numbers. He also showed much improved and consistent defense at SS. The home run numbers took a leap, but the exit velos were less than inspiring. Still, he was much younger than his peers in Double-A and showed improvements in key areas to still believe he could have a year two rebound and remain an intriguing future utility option. This year, Bencosme is still putting up good K/BB numbers, but he has a 61 wRC+ with one of the lowest contact rates of his career. The BABIP just .190, but he’s run lower BABIPs throughout his career given his profile. The higher groundball rate has also crept back up. He’s still young for the level, but he will need to start turning things around quickly. He didn’t appear on any of our three personal lists.