Biggest risers on our Orioles prospect list in 2024

These five Orioles prospects broke out in 2024.

Written by: Nick Stevens

It’s hard to believe, but it’s almost time to update our Top 50 Orioles prospects list in preparation for the 2025 season. 

If you are a Patron of the podcast, you will receive a full 10-15 minute episode released daily, focusing solely on each individual prospect in our Top 50 list as we unveil it episode by episode. If you aren’t a Patron, now is the perfect time to sign up to receive this upcoming exclusive content. 

I was recently looking at our final list from 2024 and started taking some mental notes about my 2025 list. The real talent that can be found even down in our 40-50 range, and a few names who don’t appear on our Top 50 list, continues to amaze me. 

But it also got me thinking about the massive jumps a few different prospects made over the course of the 2024 season. Guys who weren’t on our Top 50 but are now in the Top 20, guys who were unknowns who became must-watch TV by the end of the season. 

Who were some of the biggest risers over the course of the 2024 season who appear to be poised for an even bigger 2025? Let’s take a look at my five favorite. 

RHP Keeler Morfe

Morfe was one signee from the 2023 international signing class that I specifically highlighted as a name to watch right after the signing class was announced. Why? He was one of the younger players in his class but was already showing upper-90s fastball velo and reports were impressed with his secondary offerings.

 If you go back and look at recent reports on the Orioles international classes, pay attention to the pitchers who are already receiving rave reports about their changeups or sliders. These are the arms who have skyrocketed up lists already. 

Just 2 months after his 18th birthday, the Orioles moved Morfe from the Dominican Summer League to Delmarva, completely skipping the FCL. We hadn’t seen that big of a leap made by this front office, and never imagined a pitcher would make that kind of leap. I instantly asked on the podcast- is this because he’s truly a special arm to watch or are the dreams of Morfe dead and they are promoting an arm they know won’t progress to help eat innings in Delmarva, who desperately needed help at the time. 

It’s because he’s a highly intriguing arm. 

Morfe struck out 7 across 3 innings one 1-hit ball in his Delmarva debut and continued to pitch with the poise of a much older, mature arm. 

For a full write-up on Keeler Morfe, I highly encourage you to check out this previous post I wrote about him after watching him throw 100 mph and pound the strikezone in one of his last DSL outings. 

He may be under-sized and when every list has him on their Top 30 this season, likely every list will box him into a future relief role, but the Orioles have targeted and been finding success with under-sized arms over the last few years (caveat being they are still working their way through the system so we haven’t seen major league success yet). If Morfe does eventually transition to the bullpen, a 100 mph fastball with an unruly slider will play.

After starting the year unranked, Morfe ended at #25 on our list and should begin 2025 in the Top 15.

RHP Michael Forret

The Orioles used a 14th round pick on Forret in 2023, finding him in the Florida JUCO ranks. He stood 6’3” and made Blaine Knight look thick. He didn’t pitch in 2023, making his pro debut this year with Delmarva. 

Forret spent his offseason at Tread Athletics, putting in major work overhauling his stuff and body. He increased his average FB from 91-93 to 95 (T97mph). He ditched the curveball and replaced it with the trendy Deathball, revamped the sweeper, and added a kick-change. He also added 20 pounds while working on his mechanics to utilize the additional weight and strength. 

I was skeptical of a JUCO kid so quickly putting on the weight and adding the velo, but Forret’s 2024 season lived up to the pre-season hype and internally, the Orioles are very high on Forret’s future.

After just 39 innings with Delmarva, Forret was one of the first, and youngest, pitching prospects promoted, putting in 60 innings of work with Aberdeen and setting himself up nicely to spend his age-21 season in Bowie, with a small chance of a cup of coffee in Norfolk if all goes well. 

In his first 99.2 career innings, Forret, struck out 124 with a 3.88 ERA, good for a near 30% strikeout rate. 

His 16.1% swinging-strike rate was third best in the org in 2024 (min. 50 IP), behind only Nestor German (18.3%) and Houston Roth (16.4%). 

Forret ended the year at #11 on our Top 50 list and likely begins 2025 in the 9-11 range.

IF Aron Estrada

2024 was the Year of the Pitcher (trademarked by On The Verge), but let’s be sure to show hitters some love as well. Recent international signings like Emilio Sanchez, Jordan Sanchez (no relation), and Thomas Sosa are primed for big years in 2025, but IF Aron Estrada very quietly had a huge 2024 season, showcasing something I had no idea he had. 

A 2022 international signee, Estrada lit up the DSL with a .368 average, 1.049 OPS, and more walks (29) than strikeouts (23). Unfortunately, 2023 wasn’t as impressive in the FCL- .206 average, but still had more walks than strikeouts and a 108 wRC+ in just 23 games. 

It was a different story in 2024. The 19-year-old infielder posted a 133 wRC+ in Delmarva, swatting 8 home runs. Quick reminder, Delmarva has one of the worst hitting environments for lefties in all of minor league baseball. That didn’t matter to Estrada, who is a switch-hitter, but did the majority of his damage from the left side. 

Estrada was promoted to High-A to end the year, playing in 26 games with a wRC+ of 99, so league average. However, I’ll gladly take a young bat like Estrada putting up a league-average wRC+ in his first taste of High-A ball while also lowering his strikeout rate back to his career-average 13% mark and increasing his walk rate around 4 percentage points to 11.2%. 

He’s listed at just 5’8”, but the 19-year-old infield prospect (turns 20 in January) has shown impressive bat-to-ball skills, very impressive walk and strikeout numbers, and is taking his game to another level with his power. Oh yeah, he also stole 39 bags last season. 

He was our 50th ranked prospect to start the 2024 season and ended at #13. He’s going to flirt even harder with a top 10 spot as we look to 2025.

RHP Nestor German

He was the complete unknown of the 2023 draft class. Drafted in the 11th round out of Seattle, German wasn’t on Baseball America’s Top 500 draft prospect list. He wasn’t on Joe Doyle’s Top 600 list. There wasn’t a single blurb about this man anywhere on the internet, at least none that I found. 

I did eventually find a graphic floating around from a college baseball analyst showing German next to Paul Skenes in terms of Stuff+. Take the info with a grain of salt without knowing the exact model and such, but it was at least eye-catching. 

What Nestor German did in 2024 was even more eye-catching. Making his pro debut in 2024, German pitched his first 48 innings with Delmarva, posting a 1.49 ERA with 57 strikeouts to just 14 walks. (0.93 WHIP, .179 average against). 

He missed a full month during his time in Delmarva, but still earned a promotion to High-A where he was even better. 25 innings. 33 strikeouts. 3 walks. 1.78 ERA. Damn. 

Per Baseball America, “All of German’s pitches elicit whiffs at an 85th percentile rate or better. That is all the more impressive when you realize he pounds the zone with each. The 11th-round pick of 2023 has grown stronger as the season has gone on, adding 1 mph to his fastball since June—averaging 94 mph now since July 1—and adding an astonishing 3 mph to his slider, now sitting 86 mph.”

He was unranked on our preseason Top 50 list and ended in the Top 30 at #29. He will surely move up a few more spots to begin 2025.

RHP Trey Gibson

A 757 native, Trey Gibson had two solid seasons at Liberty as he piled up the strikeouts in 2021 and 2022, but he didn’t pitch with the Flames in 2023 because of a suspension for unknown reasons (he probably said a potty word). He did pitch in the Cape Cod League, where he walked 21 batters in 29 innings with a 10.24 ERA. 

Gibson went undrafted in 2023, but the Orioles signed him to a minor league deal in August. 

In his first full year as a pro, Gibson was one of the top strikeout arms in the organization, sitting down 118 via punchout across 92 innings, earning a promotion to High-A before the end of the year. 

National outlets only started paying attention to Gibson by chance. Baseball America happened to be at a game that Gibson appeared in while with Delmarva, where he showcased a high-powered fastball and two electric breaking balls. He’s now on the radar. 

Both his slider and curveball had 40%+ whiff rates in 2024. In total, it’s a five-pitch mix headlined by a mid-90s fastball. His 6’5”, 240 pound frame with his 7 foot extension (near Grayson Rodriguez level extension who ranks in the 97th percentile) make for a lethal combo. 

I think he’s a workhorse in the making with his frame and deep pitch mix and shouldn’t have to wait long to get the call to Bowie if he starts 2025 back in Aberdeen. 

He wasn’t on our preseason Top 50 but ended the year at number 31. He will firmly be in the Top 30 (Top 20?) when our 2025 list drops. 

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