Final Orioles Mock Draft
5 rounds. 8 picks. One last mock draft for the road.
Written by: Nick Stevens
***This article was prepared before the Orioles traded RHP Bryan Baker to the Rays for the 37th overall pick in the draft. They will now begin this year’s draft with picks 19, 30, 31, and 37 and now have the largest signing bonus pool at $19,144,500. The simulator tool was not updated with pick 37 going to the Orioles so there is no pick 37 in this mock draft. Pretend it’s Louisville RHP Patrick Forbes. Boom***
We’ve finally reached one of the best weekends of the year..MLB Draft weekend. With this year’s draft kicking off on Sunday night, it’s time for one final Baltimore Orioles mock draft.
Five rounds. Eight picks. Let’s fire up the Prospects Live Mock Draft Simulator and see what fun we can have.
As a reminder, we will be live Sunday night as the Orioles pick at 19, 30, and 31, and be back Monday night at our normal live time to recap the draft as a whole. Make sure you’re subscribed to our YouTube channel and our podcast feed on your platform of choice and stay tuned to the Substack for PLENTY of content reviewing picks, looking at undrafted free agent signings and more.
And with that…let’s draft.
Round 1: Pick 19- Arkansas SS Wehiwa Aloy
Based on how the first 18 picks played out above, I’m left with the Jace LaViolette question as he’s one of the top names available. He’s been highly connected to the Orioles in many recent national mock drafts and I can tell I’m going to be one of the few fans pleased if he is the pick for reasons I touched on in this week’s mailbag episode. But Wiehiwa Aloy is also on the board and I refuse to let him pass at pick 19.
This year’s Golden Spikes winner offers more power and upside than most other college hitters likely to go in the back half of the first round, he helps fill a major void in the organization (even though we don’t draft for immediate need), and he shouldn’t be falling this far.
I’ve discussed exactly why I’m so high on Aloy in many recent podcasts and articles so I won’t hammer those points again and let’s move on to picks 30 and 31 where things are sure to get very interesting.
Comp round: Pick 30- Indiana OF Devin Taylor
Anthony Eyanson, who I was targeting, goes to Arizona, Riley Quick is perfectly fine here but I’ll take plenty of pitching soon. I’m not in on Zach Root, but wouldn’t mind a Patrick Forbes or AJ Russell here, however, I like the idea of hammering big upside bats back-to-back-to-back here and then targeting a handful of the number of high upside arms starting in the second round.
Taylor doesn’t have the centerfield skillset a team like the Orioles would probably prefer to target here, but I’m ok sacrificing a little defensive ability for a much better hit tool. A three-year starter, the LHH outfielder hit 54 home runs with a career .350 average and 1.130 OPS across 798 plate appearances. He also OPS’d over .900 in the Cape Cod League last summer while also showcasing his advanced skillset for Team USA that same summer. Taylor posted above-average contact rates this season with moderate chase while walking 52 times compared to 30 strikeouts. Statistically, it’s hard to find a more consistent hitter in the country who’s been doing it as long as Taylor and he’s far from a finished product with plenty of ceiling to tap into.
Comp round: Pick 31- 3B Xaver Neyens
Aloy and Taylor give the organization a needed giant boost of immediate talent, so let’s shoot for even more ceiling with one of the top high school bats in the class in the powerful west coast prospect Xavier Neyens.
Listed at 6’4”/205, the 18-year-old lefty has 70 grades placed on his power by some outlets who love the “thunderous” bat speed. We selected Neyens in our mock draft podcast episode last week and explained why here. With a large number of graduations from the Orioles farm system, a few recent trades, and an under-performing top half of the 2024 draft class up this point (still early, but not a great start), adding three big bats in Aloy, Taylor, and Neyens instantly juices this farm system in a much-needed way.
Round 2: Pick 58- Michigan State LHP Joseph Dzierwa
Dzierwa was masterful this season, taking home Big 10 Pitcher of the Year honors after going 8-3 with a 2.36 ERA, 28% strikeout rate and sub 6% walk rate. In his first three starts of the season, Dzierwa struck out 33, walked 2 and gave up 1 ER across 19 IP, and also has a complete game shutout against Oregon in early May where he struck out 11 and walked none. Oregon was a top 10 program in the country at the time.
Probably should have led with this, but he’s 6’7”. Dzierwa features a low-90s fastball but he’s touched 95 mph, with a low-80s changeup and mid-70s slider. An uber-projectable arm, Dzierwa already features plus control with elite first-pitch strike consistency.
Competitive Balance Round B: Pick 69- Vanderbilt LHP JD Thompson
We go from a 6’7” lefty to a 6’0” lefty. Thompson struck out 122 across 90 innings for the Commodores this season, while posting a career-low 3 BB/9 IP. His fastball has touched 96 mph with 18+ inches of induced vertical break and deception in his delivery, there’s also a slider, curve, and changeup that produced huge whiff rates this season with 12+ mph separation from his fastball. Like Dzierwa, Thompson regularly pounds the strikezone. There’s so much focus on avoiding a Jace LaViolette because of people getting tired of taking hitters with big power and other standout tools but big questions about the hit tool, but personally, I’m more interested in seeing fewer early round pitchers with loud stuff but questionable ability to throw strikes. Dzierwa and Thompson still bring rotation upside with plenty of projection and plus control.
Round 3: Pick 93- Wake Forest RHP Logan Lunceford
If we could extend this out to more rounds, Logan Lunceford wouldn’t be the only Wake Forest arm taken here (I need Joe Ariola in this organization). There’s no consistency in where Lunceford is ranked on national lists. He started his career at Missouri where he stepped into the rotation as a freshman, but saw his strikeout rate tank to 18% as a sophomore. He transferred to Wake and the Lab set him on a better path. In 60 innings this season, Lunceford struck out 32.8% of hitters and saw his FIP drop from 6.28 to 3.35.
Through a big chunk of the season, Lunceford (and Ariola) had higher Stuff+ grades than a few arms who will go in the first round this year. Lunceford’s fastball sits in the low-90s but averages more than 21 inches of IVB, along with a slider, beautiful breaker, and a true weapon in his changeup. The delivery is buttery smooth and the raw stuff is there. Seeing the jump he made after transferring from Missouri, I’d be very curious to see what he could in a pro organization, especially one like Baltimore.
Round 4: Pick 124- George Mason OF James Quinn-Irons
I had the chance to watch James Quinn-Irons in person this year and he was clearly on another level from everyone else on the field. According to 643 Charts, Quinn-Irons ranked 4th in college baseball this season with a 5.35 WAR campaign. He hit .419 on the year with 16 home runs, 42 total extra-base hits, and a 187 wRC+ through 298 plate appearances. He also swiped 36 bags.
He’s posted EVs of 115 mph this season, showed off the power at the combine just the other week, has plus speed, and every report out there has noted his improved hit tool this season. He’s 22, so that’s going to dock him in the model, but Quinn-Irons has the potential to mash his way through the minors with quality speed and defense. There’s risk that the hit tool may get exposed as he moves up the ladder but with his other standout tools, I will happily take the hit tool risk in the fourth round compared to the first round.
Round 5: Pick 154- Central Florida SS Antonio Jimenez
I wanted to make sure I get another middle infielder before closing this out and most of my targets went off the board after taking Quinn-Irons, except for Jimenez. The 6’1” draft-eligible sophomore hit .329 with 11 home runs and 27 total extra-base hits in 55 games. He closed out the year with 16 hits over his final 8 games. He’s eclipsed 115 mph exit velo, posted top-notch contact rates against fastballs, and has truly elite arm strength, receiving 60+ grades. There’s chase in his profile but the hit, run, power, and fielding tools are all average to above-average with potential for more. Getting Jimenez in the fifth round after taking Griff O’Ferrall 32nd overall last year is an unbelievable improvement.
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