Looking for the potential breakout from the Orioles 2024 draft class
Keep an eye on this pitcher from the Orioles 2024 draft class.
Written by: Nick Stevens
The MLB Draft is one of my favorite events on the sports calendar. Spending multiple seasons following players and their development in the college ranks and then getting to continue that throughout their minor league careers, while also diving into the film, highlights, and research on guys I was unfamiliar with is a fascinating process.
Attempting to identify the sleeper(s) from a draft class and trying to determine who will break out is the best part of the process, made even more enjoyable when the picks to click actually click.
In 2024, the Orioles went ACC heavy with their first three picks (Vance Honeycutt, Griff O’Ferrall, and Ethan Anderson) and have had a few players outside of these top picks receive attention from national outlets- RHP Chase Allsup (4th round), IF DJ Layton (6th round), and OF Nate George (16th round) specifically.
Of the 21 total selections made, 11 were pitchers in this year’s class. With Allsup getting a ton of attention from Baseball America since the draft, I wanted to dig through the rest of the pitching class and identify an interesting arm I think fans should be aware of.
I’m going with 10th round pick Christian Rodriguez here.
Rodriguez is a 6’6” right-handed pitcher out of Cal State Fullerton, one of two arms signed out of Cal State Fullerton in last year’s class (20th round RHP Evan Yates). The senior arm received a signing bonus of $179,200, close to $32,000 above slot-value.
Rodriguez did not pitch in 2024 after the draft, but we do have a large amount of college and MLB Draft League data to look at. After finishing up his career at Cal State Fullerton, Rodriguez (along with Yates), pitched for the Frederick Keys this summer. Hopefully, the California kid enjoyed his time in Maryland because he could be here awhile.
He made just three appearances in college as a freshman and was then limited to 38 innings as a sophomore in 2022 due to injury. He did not appear in a game in 2023. You guessed it. Tommy John.
After settling back in on the mound in 2024 (69.1 IP, 58 K, 29 BB, 5.45 ERA), Rodriguez was scheduled to transfer to Hawaii, but a dominant performance in the MLB Draft League changed those plans. With the Frederick Keys, Rodriguez logged an additional 39 innings, putting up a 3.92 ERA with 45 K and 12 walks.
In his final start with the Keys, Rodriguez put together one of the more dominant outings any pitcher has ever put together in the Draft League- 9 IP, 2 R, 16 K. It was the first complete game in league history and the most strikeouts in a game in league history.
Thanks to @TJStats on twitter, we can take a look at the numbers that actually mean something (paywalled behind his Patreon, in case you’re looking for it). Rodriguez logged 39 of his 69 innings last year in college at a Statcast park.
According to Statcast, Rodriguez threw six pitches: four seamer (34%), sinker (24%), slider (17%), curveball (9%), splitter (8%), and a changeup (7%). Per TJ’s model, the slider, curveball, and changeup all had a Stuff+ of 101-102, with the curveball grading out as a major league average pitch and the changeup as a near plus offering.
His fastball averaged just 92 mph with little extension, just a 12% whiff rate, a Stuff+ of 90 (remember, 100 is league average). It graded out as a below-average offering.
Don’t forget, this is only a sample of half of a season and he was just returning to the mound after missing a year and a half due to Tommy John surgery. This was his first real action in college since stepping onto campus at Cal State Fullerton.
Let’s move ahead to the draft league and use just one sample- the 9 IP/16 K game.
According to Statcast, Rodriguez threw the four-seamer 54% of the time. The velo was up to a 93.3 mph average, more than a tick higher than the data we have from college, topping out at 95.6 mph. It produced just two whiffs and had a 25% called-strike + whiff rate (you want 30% or higher), but he threw it for a strike at a 61% clip.
In this start with the Keys, the splitter was his second most-used offering- at 27%. There was one note from Baseball America about this outing which notes that while Statcast classified the pitch as a splitter it may have been a changeup. Either way, it produced 18 whiffs and a 60% CSW%. That makes more sense seeing as TJ’s model graded the changeup as a near plus offering.
I’m not a scout or an expert in pitch design by any means, but I think there are enough signs here to point to Christian Rodriguez being a pitching prospect the Orioles are very high on and someone who has the potential to have a real breakout over the next year or two.
The fastball velo is climbing up after coming off surgery, entering a viable range for a starting pitching prospect. Pairing him up with the Orioles pitching development program could unlock a few things. Standing at 6’6”, I imagine the Orioles attempt to revamp the fastball shape, get some more extension with his large frame, and build up the pitch to a higher quality offering. He already has feel for spin with multiple breaking balls, and whether it’s a changeup that at least Baseball America believes or a splitter which Statcast believes it is, it gets whiffs at an insane rate (did in college as well).
I strongly think the clay is there, and it’s good quality clay for Orioles pitching coaches and analysts down on the farm to work with. Also, giving a 10th round senior a signing bonus of $32,000 above his slot value is a sign that the Orioles believe.
I’m excited to see him in pro ball for the first time next season and learning more, but in the meantime, jot the name down.
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