Orioles Week 1 MLB Draft Watch Guide
Happy Opening Weekend!
Written by: Nick Stevens
Baseball season has arrived.
On Friday afternoon, the 2025 NCAA Division-I baseball season will kick off in full force, with a seemingly endless supply of baseball games from around the country available for your viewing pleasure across ESPN, FloSports, YouTube, and more. If there’s a college team or player you want to watch, you can find them now, thankfully.
I’ve always been very proud of the draft coverage we have provided over the years here at On The Verge and I’m bringing more of it than ever in 2025.
There will be regular articles here on Substack highlighting players I’ve recently watched that may be of intrigue to the Orioles in the upcoming 2025 MLB Draft and plenty of video/data/notes on players dropped into our Discord.
In the Patron-only section of our Discord, check out the #MLBDraft channel for the daily draft nuggets and I’ll be posting my weekly Draft Notes Sheet. Each week I will have 3-4 series highlighted that I’m going to be watching that weekend, with all the data and info for each draft-eligible player of note from those series and then updated with new data and notes after watching.
For those who love college baseball already and want to join the discussion, those who want to get into college baseball but need a roadmap, or those who are just Orioles fans eager to talk about draft prospects, become a Patron here, get access to the Patron-only Discord channels, and make sure you are subscribed to the Substack.
Here’s my Week 1 viewing guide with the games and a small handful of players I’ll be watching specifically (full list of players/notes available in Discord).
#20 Dallas Baptist University vs North Dakota State (ESPN+)
Dallas Baptist is going to be a very fun team to watch, with RHP James Ellwanger leading the charge. The draft-eligible sophomore had an injury-shortened freshman campaign, but had a huge rebound over the summer in the Cap Cod League (13 IP, 22 K, 5 BB, 2.77 ERA).
Standing 6’4”, Ellwanger delivers from a 3/4 arm slot, sitting in the mid-90’s and touching 99 mph with impressive swing and miss at the top of the zone (18+ inches of IVB). He also features a slider with big swing and miss numbers in the Cape, along with a developing curve and change.
Still a bit raw with immense upside and top-notch stuff, a healthy year as DBU’s Friday night arm should shoot him up into the first round. He’s very high on my Orioles priority list for 2025
Other names to watch in this series: Catcher Grant Jay and 1B/3B Michael Dattalo. Dattalo has good bat-to-ball skills and showcased them in the Cape, while Jay has immense raw power (back-to-back 21 HR seasons, 116 max EV), but also a good amount of swing and miss with defensive abilities that continue to catch up.
#6 North Carolina vs Texas Tech (ESPN+)
The Orioles have used significant draft capital on talent out of UNC lately, spending a second round pick on Mac Horvath in 2023 and a first round pick on Vance Honeycutt in 2024. Will that continue in 2025?
Catcher Luke Stevenson is a stud, but I think he’s long gone by the time the Orioles pick so I’ll pass on diving into him here. There are two UNC pitchers who I will particularly focused on, neither of whom will be a first round pick, but as of February 6th look to be intriguing picks in the rounds 2-5 range: RHP Aidan Haugh and LHP Folger Boaz.
Haugh stands 6’6” and was drafted by the Twins last year but didn’t sign. He tops out at 96 mph with a four-pitch mix and plus extension. He has the look of a fun project by a team with good pitching development like the Orioles. Boaz is a draft-eligible sophomore who is up to 94 mph from the left side with multiple variations of a breaking ball and changeup that receives a plus potential grade by some. He worked his way into UNC’s weekend rotation as a freshman but had his season cut short due to injury. Both arms are extremely intriguing prospects, with Boaz likely to go earlier in the draft.
(Boaz video below)
On the Texas Tech side, I’m intrigued by RHP Mac Heuer. If you remember former Orioles minor league pitcher Jake Lyons, Heuer is that same mold in terms of his physical build and delivery. He’s a draft-eligible sophomore who made 10 starts for the Red Raiders last year as a freshman. Listed at 6’5” and 265 pounds, Heuer brings a fastball that touches 97 mph with a curve and change. Recent reports highlight improved command since the end of the season. He was originally drafted by the Guardians in the 16th round of the 2023 out of high school.
Other names to watch: 3B Damien Bravo (Texas Tech), OF Kane Kepley (UNC), and RHP Matthew Matthijs (UNC). Bravo was a doubles machine last year with exit velos north of 110 mph. Matthijs has a fastball with 21 inches of IVB and a Stuff+ north of 120. It’s an elite pitch and he’s primarily fastball/curveball. D1Baseball.com named him the third best relief pitcher in the country. Kepley is transferring in from Liberty, bringing with him an insane hit tool and a plus run tool. He’s a lefty who stands at just 5’8”, but posted a 90% contact rate last season and walked 53 times with just 27 strikeouts. An uber intriguing prospect who may become a bigger focus of mine after watching him more.
#9 Florida State vs James Madison (ACC Network)
I’ll be at pretty much every JMU game, as usual, but this particular series is more about Florida State (JMU lit up Hagen Smith opening weekend last year at Arkansas so don’t think for a second this will be cake walk. Respect the Sun Belt).
LHP Jamie Arnold is the ace for Florida State, but like Luke Stevenson at UNC, I think I’ll pass on diving into him here because Arnold may be the first pitcher off the board, well before Baltimore picks.
RHP Cam Leiter (yep, there’s always a Leiter) had his 2024 campaign cut short due to shoulder surgery, but the 6’5” pitcher is a possible first round pick this summer, if healthy. Featuring three potential plus offerings, Leiter’s fastball touches 99 mph with elite extension from a low arm slot. Leiter won’t start the year healthy so concerns over his shoulder, along with walk concerns, could see Leiter slide a good bit. This is one to file away for later in the year, but needed to highlight him here
RHP Evan Chrest will be a must-watch arm in this series. Chrest is a Jacksonville transfer who touches 95 mph with a 3,000 rpm slider, curve, change, and was working a new cutter in this fall. He’s becoming an early draft crush and had a very good preseason.
(Chrest video courtesy Brett Nevitt. @Brettpn on X)
OF Max Williams is the big bat to watch. Williams has elite raw power with a max EV of 114 mph. A big highlight of his last year was a 104 mph/420 foot home run off a 99 mph Chase Burns fastball. He has a lot of chase and whiff in his game and a lot more groundballs than you would like, but an improved hit tool could have him moving quickly up draft boards.
Other names to watch: OF Gage Harrelson (FSU), IF Alex Lodise (FSU), IF Drew Faurot (FSU), and IF Wyatt Pfeifer (JMU). Harrelson had a tough year at Texas Tech last year, but I’m intrigued to see a potential bounce back from the 6’3” LHH with bits of Chase DeLauter in his swing. Lodise has reportedly added more power and went on a home run spree in the preseason. Fun fact about Wyatt Pfeifer- he was on the NCAA Gold Glove Team with Orioles draft picks Griff O’Ferrall and Vance Honeycutt. He did suffer an injury this summer and will be eased into the 2025 season.
TCU vs San Diego (ESPN+)
TCU should be a force in the Big 12 and will feature one of the more fun experiments on the mound. The big name to watch here is LHP Ben Abeldt. The 6’3” lefty has been one of the top relief arms in the country over the last two years, but he will look to transition to a starting role in 2025. He has a devilish look for left-handed hitters with a fastball that’s touched upper-90s mph and a slider that produced a 45% whiff rate last season. If his move is successful, he will skyrocket up draft boards.
**Update: Ben Abeldt will miss the 2025 season with a partially torn UCL, per Kendall Rogers of D1Baseball.com (2/13 update) **
I’m also going back to the well with SS Anthony Silva. He was a draft crush of mine going into the 2024 season after ending 2023 on a very high note, but the bat regressed last year. He’s an elite defender and I get a ton of Joey Ortiz vibes with Silva. Reports out of fall ball here that Silva led the team in home runs and looked great at the plate. If he can rebound in 2025, I need him in the Orioles system.
Other names to watch: 3B Jack Basseer (TCU), C Karson Brown (TCU), RHP Kole Klecker (TCU), RHP Caedmon Parker. Brown is a shorter, thick backstop with a cannon for an arm, while Parker is a pretty intriguing arm. He was an 11th round pick of the Brewers in 2024, had TJ surgery and missed the 2023 but returned with more strikeouts with his four-pitch mix. It’s a high-effort delivery with big time extension and two potential plus offerings.
MLB Desert Invitational (MLB Network)
I’m never going back to FloSports, so I’ll miss out on some big time baseball down in Texas on Opening Weekend, but MLB Network and MLB.com will feature the Desert Invitational with Vanderbilt, Grand Canyon, Nebraska, Seton Hall, Austin Peay, and others.
Vandy LHP JD Thompson is fun. His fastball sits 92, touches 96 mph. He’s 5’11” but gets 7 feet of extension. He threw the pitch for a strike at a 72% clip with a 20% swinging-strike rate. 118 Stuff+. It’s a true weapon.
RJ Austin is also a must-watch. He’s played all over the field and could showcase his ability to play shortstop this season, but it appears he will primarily play in centerfield. He has little swing and miss with great contact numbers and connected on a few thunderous bombs for Team USA recently. He’s eclipsed 110 max EV at Vandy. The ceiling is very high and he should safely find a home in the first round.
Two other players I’ll be watching closely in this tournament are Nebraska OF Case Sanderson and Seton Hall RHP Ryan Reich. Sanderson is a draft-eligible sophomore who is cutting out football to focus solely on baseball now. He’s extremely young for his class with batted ball data that pops. This past summer in the Northwoods League, Sanderson hit 7 home runs with a .505 OBP, 47 BB/32 K. Huge numbers in the wooden bat summer league.
Last but not least, there’s Reich. He doesn’t have premium velo but the fastball is up to 94 mph now with 20+ inches of IVB from a low release point. It generated a 30% whiff rate last season. He’s a potential gem of a find outside the first round who could really take off in the right pitching development program.
There’s what I’m watching this weekend in week one of the college baseball season. More notes/data on these players, plus more, all compiled in my Draft Notes sheet in our Discord, only available in the Patron-exclusive channels. Week 1 observations will be updated there as well. Come talk draft prospects all season long!
Subscribe to the Orioles On The Verge podcast here. Find us on YouTube here. Want extra perks including exclusive podcast episodes and access to a private Discord with a large group of diehard O’s fans? Join our Patreon here for as little as $3/month (discounts available if you sign up for a full year).
Great post, Nick. I’m also a big college baseball fan. I went to the University of Miami when Ron Fraser was still coaching. I hope there are some Canes on your radar!