The Way Too Early Look At The 2024 MLB Draft
With college baseball returning, let's start the 2024 draft prep.
Written by: Nick Stevens
The 2024 Division I NCAA baseball season kicks off next week, which means baseball is back on TV pretty much every night until (hopefully) November. With first pitches around the country scheduled for next Friday, I thought I would start collecting my initial thoughts on this year’s draft class, specifically where the Baltimore Orioles could go with their selections, and gradually expand on this throughout the year
The Orioles aren’t picking at the top of the draft anymore, ideally for a very long time, but the MLB Draft is still one of my favorite events on the sports calendar, so while some fans may be reverting to not caring so much about the draft (understandable), my love for this process has grown over the years, so expect updates throughout the year and more coverage than in years past.
This year’s draft class has already been labeled as much less stellar in terms of top-end talent compared to recent draft classes, but there’s still a full season of baseball to be played and plenty of time for guys to pop, shoot up draft boards, and change the minds of evaluators. The high school class indeed is nowhere close to the group of Jackson Holliday, Termarr Johnson, Druw Jones, and Elijah Green we saw in 2022, and there doesn’t seem to be a clear-cut 1.1 at the moment, but there’s good depth in certain areas of this class and it should give organizations with sound draft processes an advantage by being able to identify the sleepers and hidden talents.
The Orioles will pick 22nd in the first round of the 2024 draft and that’s the only pick I’ll focus on here for this first piece.
Here are 5 way-too-early names to keep an eye on at pick 22:
Saguaro High School LHP Cam Caminiti
Yes, he’s related to Ken Caminiti, so let’s kick this off by looking at a familiar last name. Caminiti is a 6’2” left-handed pitcher who will be just 17 on draft day after reclassifying from the 2025 draft cycle, meaning he’s going to pop in the models.
“But he’s a pitcher.” I can already hear that response being muttered. Under Brad Ciolek, the Orioles weren’t opposed to using high draft capital on pitching, it just never seemed to line up as they wanted, and we saw them be more aggressive with high-upside arms in last year’s draft. The organization appears to be pretty confident in their pitching development now so I expect them to build on that, plus Ciolek is now in Washington, so while the core organizational philosophy isn’t going to change, a shakeup in who’s leading the effort could have a small impact in final draft decisions.
Per Baseball America’s report, Caminiti throws a low-90s fastball that gets good swing and miss (was touching 97 mph as a 16-year-old), an upper-70’s slider with “sweeping shape”, a mid-70s curveball, and an 81-84 mph changeup with arm side fade. As described by Joe Doyle over at Future Stars Series, Caminiti “may not blow hitters away with pure stuff, but his feel for shaping the baseball and mixing it up should help develop him into a big league starter.”
One of the youngest players in the draft class, Caminiti has an incredibly high ceiling and all the makings of a big league starter, including that easy, repeatable, smooth delivery from the left side. He also has two-way potential with impressive raw power, but it seems like teams will prefer to dream on his arm as a pitcher. He’s an LSU commit.
Tennessee RHP Drew Beam
Let’s keep the party going with pitching. While Caminiti represents the young, upside play, Tennessee RHP Drew Beam represents the higher floor play (still with a fairly high ceiling).
Standing 6’4” and just over 200 pounds, Beam is a sturdy righty who has had a successful first two years in the SEC. He went 9-4 with a 3.63 ERA and 88/23 K/BB across 17 starts and 84 innings last season. While the 9.4 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 are fine, he was hit around a good bit, allowing 9.4 H/9.
Beam features a five-pitch mix that includes a 93-94 mph fastball (T98 mph), a curveball that’s often described as his best secondary pitch for it’s swing and miss traits (37% whiff rate), a changeup (35% whiff rate), slider, and cutter. He’s reportedly looking to add a two-seamer to his mix as well this year and in a recent interview with ProspectsLive, Beam discussed how his big offseason focus has been refining his pitch shapes. Combine that with his above-average command and maybe even a tick or or two bump in his velo and Beam should find himself comfortably in the first round.
If you haven’t seen him pitch yet and wonder why a Tennessee Volunteer is rocking a purple glove when you get a look at him, it’s in honor of his sister, a story he tells in the interview with ProspectsLive. Touching stories like that always get me.
TCU SS Anthony Silva
The Orioles like to take TCU commits in the draft, so why not take a look at a current Horned Frog in shortstop Anthony Silva.
Baltimore just parted ways with SS Joey Ortiz in the Corbin Burnes trade, but could not only regain the draft pick they traded by giving Burnes a qualifying offer next offseason (assuming he rejects it and tests free agency), but the Orioles could also replace Ortiz with another elite defensive shortstop with sneaky pop potential and ability to shake off the “glove-first” label.
Silva stands 6’2” and is considered by many to be the top defensive college shortstop in the country. He’s a draft-eligible sophomore and will be just 21 on draft day. If he’s able to start showing more over-the-fence power in games as the season progresses, he will check off a lot of the boxes the Orioles look for in hitting prospects.
In 61 games played as a freshman last year, Silva hit .330 with a .416 OBP, 7 HR, 11 2B, 17 SB, and a 33/23 K/BB. While he doesn’t strike out a lot and has good contact rates, he doesn’t walk a ton (had to make sure I wasn’t just writing about Joey Ortiz with all these similarities). Per Peter Flaherty of Baseball America, Silva posted an 88% in-zone contact rate and dominated against 92+ mph fastballs (.360 average/.460 slug).
If I had to pick a favorite here in early February, it’s Anthony Silva.
IMG Academy OF/LHP Noah Franco
And here’s the TCU commit. I’m including Franco here because he was mocked to the Orioles by Baseball America in their very first 2024 mock draft. Franco is a 6’3” left-handed hitter and left-handed pitcher with loud tools both at the plate and on the mound. At this point, every public report suggests that most scouts like his upside as a hitter more. We know the Orioles have no issues in selecting a two-way guy and are open to having them hit and pitch, at least in the lower levels of the minors. Unfortunately, Nolan McLean didn’t sign so we never got to see exactly how the Orioles handle a player like this.
Franco is currently pitching for Team USA in the DRD International Baseball Academies Tournament in Puerto Rico and putting up shutout innings against the Dominican Republic, showcasing his five-pitch mix that includes a four-seamer, two-seamer, slider, cutter, and changeup. He’s hitting 94 mph with plenty of physical projection left and the possibility to add move velo.
At the plate, Baseball America describes him as having an explosive, violent swing designed to do damage, but maintains notable bat-to-ball skills and strike-zone discipline. Defensively, he’s a corner outfielder who reportedly plays elite defense at first base.
A young lefty with a violent swing designed to do damage? Might be a hard sell to the Orioles (insert sarcasm here).
UVA SS Griff O’Ferrall
O’Ferrall doesn’t have the loud tools and super high upside like the others mentioned above, but if the Orioles are going to make more trades and part with more talent in the upper minors, O’Ferrall is a high-floor pick who could move quickly through the system and help fill the void while some of the high upside international talents like Luis Almeyda, Leandro Arias, and Emilio Sanchez work their way up.
I’ve watched a good bit of O’Ferrall already since he plays just 30 minutes down the road and can say he certainly stands out among his peers on the field with his high baseball IQ, plus hit tool, and athleticism.
He was one of the top hitters during his time with Team USA, posted a .343 BA and .452 OBP in the Northwoods League last year (wooden bat summer league), and has posted very impressive numbers as a two-year starter for Virginia:
123 games
.356 BA
.431 OBP
.867 OPS
3 HR
25 2B
33-37 in stolen base attempts
67 BB- 64 K
A savant at controlling the zone, as evidenced by his walk and strikeout numbers, O’Ferrall can spray base hits all over the field, but is clearly lacking in the power department. The three career home runs aren’t a typo. This isn’t an Enrique Bradfield Jr situation either, where maybe the Orioles get more power out of an elite bat. He’s far from a prototypical Orioles prospect, but his defensive versatility, plus hit tool, ability to be a threat on the basepaths, and makeup could be an asset.