Week 4 MLB Draft Notebook: Potential Orioles targets begin ACC play.
A handful of potential options for the Orioles at pick 19 began ACC this past weekend.
Written by: Nick Stevens
It’s hard to believe we are now a month into the college baseball season, but time flies when you’re having fun.
For this past weekend, I was tuned into a trio of ACC-opening series, plus getting my first extensive look at a favorite of mine for the Orioles at pick 19 in this year’s draft, Cal Baptist OF Nick Dumesnil. I called my shot early on Dumesnil back in December. The other series were California vs Duke, Notre Dame vs Wake Forest, and Virginia Tech vs Georgia Tech.
Here’s who stood out from this past weekend:
Notre Dame vs Wake Forest
Wake SS Marek Houston entered the year as the 12th ranked college prospect in the 2025 class according to Baseball America, with a 55 grade hit and run tools and 60 grade fielding and arm tools. A lot has changed since then.
Houston is moving up draft rankings quickly after an explosive start to the 2025 season. Through 17 games, Houston is hitting .415 with 7 home runs, a 19% strikeout rate, 7% walk rate, and a 175 wRC+. He homered 8 times in 200 more at-bats last season. Houston reportedly added 15 pounds in the offseason and if one of the top overall prospects in the draft, who many consider to be the top defensive shortstop, is developing his power a full grade higher, he’s going to play his way well up the first round and out of range of the Orioles at pick 19. At this rate, he should go Top 10.
That doesn’t mean we can’t admire his game:
The Orioles could be in play for Wake OF Ethan Conrad. Conrad was one of four college bats I highlighted back in December as possible options for the Orioles in the first round and the Marist transfer is settling in well after transitioning to the ACC.
On Friday, Marek Houston put up 10 RBI in one game and stole the show, but Conrad put together a pair of high quality at-bats himself, including a powerful pull-side single to beat the extreme shift put on against him, and then taking a fastball in on the hands and driving it the opposite way for base hit. On Saturday, Conrad sent one over the scoreboard at The Couch, going 447 feet at 109 mph. I’ve seen his EV go as high as 111 mph this season, which is a couple of ticks higher than his career-high coming into the season.
On Sunday, Conrad put the nail in the coffin, hitting a 106 mph run-rule walk-off home run off a lefty. He’s now hitting .359 with 6 HR and more walks than strikeouts.
Conrad is a solid defender in CF, a LHH growing into more power after moving from a small school in Marist to an ACC power in Wake Forest, he has speed on the basepaths, and some of the question marks surrounding him like lowering his groundball rate and lowering the chase rate, appear to be improving already in 2025. He screams Orioles first round draft pick.
A “sleeper” bat in this Wake Forest lineup is OF Jack Winnay. Winnay was draft eligible last year as a sophomore and reportedly had many teams interested in later rounds. The exit velos aren’t elite, but they are good and he can routinely find the barrel and generate a high degree of launch that has led to 27 home runs and counting in less than a full season and a half worth of games.
On the pitching side for Wake, RHP Logan Lunceford, RHP Joe Ariola, and RHP Matthew Dallas all took the bump for the Deacs and impressed.
On Friday night, Lunceford struck out 13 while walking 2 across 5 IP. His season line now sits at: 20 IP, 1.80 ERA, 42 K, 8 BB.
Lunceford’s repertoire includes a low-90s fastball that touches 94 with 20+ inches of induced vertical break from a lower release. He also mixes in a slider, curve, and a beautiful changeup that is his second best offering. Lunceford was a weekend starter for Missouri as a true freshman and struck out just 7.9/9 IP last year with the Tigers. The Wake Forest pitching lab has unlocked about five new levels with Lunceford already, as he’s striking out just a tick under 15/9 IP through the first month of the season. That won’t stick as the heart of ACC play gets underway, but the added swing and miss is helping to push him up draft boards.
The delivery is butter and the below flex after his 6th strikeout in two innings is the kind of confidence I need in my starting pitcher.
I was very excited to see RHP Joe Ariola in action for the first time after reports of utter dominance in preseason action. He entered Friday’s contest out of the bullpen with a 19-3 lead so I doubt he had much juice knowing his only job was to protect a 16 run lead.
Ariola sat 92-93 mph and touched 94 mph with iffy control, giving up a short porch home run to Notre Dame IF Estevan Moreno. Typically, Ariola is in the 92-95 mph range and has touched 97 mph with plus IVB numbers and above-average extension.
He had a much better outing on Sunday, throwing a scoreless inning with two strikeouts.
There’s reliever risk with Ariola but it’s not hard to see a handful of teams willing to take him and develop him as a starter at first. Will have to get another look later in the year when he makes a start, or at least enters a weekend ACC game when the opposing team needs less than 4 grand slams to make a comeback.
Last but certainly not least, there was LHP Matthew Dallas who I find fascinating. Dallas struck out 7 and allowed just one earned run across 5 IP on Saturday, sitting 89-91 mph from the left side. Dallas was expected to go very early in the draft out of high school, but the Tennessee kid decided to honor his commitment to Tennessee, where he pitched one year, striking out 22 in 17 innings. Despite the low-90s velo and 13-14 inches of IVB, Dallas’ fastball gets fantastic swing and miss. He also throws a mid-80s change with more than a foot of movement, a sweeper with good depth, and a big bender.
He’s listed at 6-5 and under 200 pounds. The sophomore could be a fantastic projection pick with a ton of upside as he gets into a pro organization.
California vs Duke
It’s been a rough year for the Blue Devils this year and this series was the first ACC series for California, which started with a 14-1 run rule victory for Cal.
Cal 3B Cade Campbell was fun to watch all weekend. Campbell hit .115 in 52 at-bats as a freshman in 2023 and didn’t see any game action in 2024 (reasons unknown). He won the starting third base job to begin 2025 and he’s done nothing but rake since. Through 14 games, Campbell is hitting .414 with 6 HR and 6 2B. He’s walked just once and is running a 24% strikeout rate, so something important to note there.
However, Campbell had five hits over the weekend, including the home run below. The exit velo numbers that have been public are modest, posting a trio of home runs between 106-108 mph. Seeing as he was a bench bat two years ago, didn’t play last year, and is now leading the way for Cal in the ACC, Campbell has become an interesting follow. I wasn’t able to catch too many defensive plays over at third base, but he did flash some quick reflexes and the ability to make tough picks.
As for the Duke side, it was the Wallace Clark show for much of the weekend. Clark’s dad, Tim, played professionally with the Cincinnati Reds, so there are pro bloodlines here. Clark started at Oklahoma but has made his home at Duke, starting every game at shortstop for the Blue Devils in 2024 as he hit .285 with 5 home runs.
The slick-fielding shortstop is showing more with the bat in 2025, currently riding a 9-game hit streak after picking up five hits over the weekend, including three on Sunday. The 6’0” switch-hitting shortstop showed some pull-side power on Friday night, sending a 92 mph fastball over the fence. A strong season in the ACC and continued growth in the power department will make Wallace a nice high floor pick.
Relievers Gabe Nard and Owen Proksch flashing fun stuff in their outings. Nard is a 5’11” righty with a 90-92 mph sinker and a quality slider. He’s coming off a good season on the Cape and was a rotation option for Duke in 2025, but he’s staying in the bullpen now. Nard’s plan of attack was to run the 92 mph sinker up in on the hands and then finish RHH off with his sweeper. It worked (14.2 IP, 3.07 ERA, 9 K on the year)
Proksch is a 6’3”/225 pound lefty with some funk in his delivery and a sidearm release. He’s primarily 90-93 mph with the fastball, 77-81 mph with the slider, and 81-84 mph with the change.
He struggled to control his slider against the first batter he faced, but settled in and showed off exactly how big of a weapon his slider is. He topped out at 94 mph on Saturday. His season line: 7.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 BB, 15 K. You can see the slider working below.
Georgia Tech vs Virginia Tech
I know I was a little mean to the Hokies last week when talking about Florida catcher and former Hokie Brody Doney, but this Tech team, as it usually is, is fun.
OF Sam Tackett is getting his first opportunity at a full-time role and he’s excelling. The 6’0” OF/IF was a highly ranked SS prospect coming out of high school, but has been patrolling center field this year for Virginia Tech. He has six home runs already, including a 500 foot blast on opening weekend.
This past weekend against GeorgiaTech, Tackett had a double home run day on Saturday. One was wind-aided, but his second wasn’t, going 430 feet at 108 mph. He’s doubled his career stolen base mark already and has flashed the wheels and leather in what is a cavernous outfield in Blacksburg.
There was a beautiful piece written about Tackett over the weekend that I’d encourage you to read here. The once highly-touted prospect has been able to put four years of struggles and pressure behind him and turned what he thought was going to be one last run for the Hokies as a clubhouse glue guy into an eye-popping year both at the plate and in the field.
Also keep an eye on 1B Garrett Michel for VT. He missed all but 9 games of the 2024 season due to a broken wrist and tried to return in the Cape, but struggled to find his groove there. The 6’0”/215 pound LHH is now healthy and is hitting .300 with more walks than strikeouts. His first at-bat of the weekend was an opposite-field double. Michel is a sleeper in this lineup and once he finally starts connecting for more power, he’s going to add a whole new dimension to this lineup.
Georgia Tech is a very young squad with very few draft-eligible players, but that group is led by SS Kyle Lodise. Lodise is a D2 transfer who has wasted no time settling into the heart of Georgia Tech’s lineup.
Lodise is now on a 13-game hit streak after a successful weekend which included his 5th home run (video below). He has more walks than strikeouts through 16 games and is 5-5 in stolen base attempts (was 44-49 at the D2 level).
The tools are largely average to slightly above-average across the board, but he’s a solid defender who should stick at SS and with his hit tool and average power shining thus far after transferring into the ACC, Lodise should hear his name called early on and would be a great pickup with one of Baltimore’s many day one picks.
On the mound, RHP Mason Patel is quite the relief arm. The 6’1”/210 pound righty stays in the low-90s with a low-80’s changeup. I don’t have deeper data on his fastball but that pitch EATS up in the zone. There’s no funk or crazy arm slot with Patel, it’s a routine delivery that gets the job done and done very well.
The former Georgia State standout tossed 4.2 no-hit innings against VT on Friday night, bringing his season line to: 17 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 17 K.
Fellow reliever RHP Jaylen Paden, a grad transfer from Georgia State, shined on Sunday. Paden threw 4 innings in a crucial deciding game three, allowing one run on two hits while striking out 4. It was the first run he’s giving up this season. It’s a high-effort delivery for Paden, who sits 90-92 mph with about 17 inches of IVB, a sweeper, and a changeup.
California Baptist vs Air Force
As mentioned at the top, Dumesnil was another one of my four very early targets for the Orioles at pick 19.
The 6’2” RHH centerfielder had a breakout sophomore campaign, hitting 19 home runs with an 1.142 OPS. He proved the breakout was real after going out to the Cape Cod League and hitting .311 with 4 HR and 12 doubles. He was also 26-27 in stolen base attempts.
Dumesnil has big time bat speed with a 90th percentile exit velo of 107 mph.
He started out the year hot and has since cooled off a bit, but a positive weekend against Air Force could be what he needed to break out again. There weren’t any highlight reel plays for Dumesnil, but he did pick up three hits on the weekend and walked three times on Sunday.
There’s a good amount of chase here and he can be uber aggressive at the plate, but there’s a lot to love and a high ceiling here if a pro organization can clean up his swing decisions a bit.
Next week: SEC play begins!
In the meantime, check out all of my previous draft notebook pieces below to catch up on what I’ve been watching this season, and head over to the #MLBDraft channel in the Patron section of our discord for my full spreadsheet with notes and data on over 100 players and counting!
Previous draft notebook pieces: