2025 MLB Draft Stock/Notable Injury News

Who is trending up? Down? Who is hurt?

Apr 15, 2025

Written by: Nick Stevens

We’re down to the final five weeks or so of the college baseball regular season. Conference tournaments and NCAA Regionals are quickly approaching and since I’ve been able to check the majority of the Power Four teams and a lot of bigger mid-major programs, plus written about a handful of my favorite smaller school arms, I wanted to go back and do a “stock report” of many of my favorite draft prospects I’ve previously written about/featured on our first MLB Draft podcast episode.

All of my draft notebook pieces are linked below for additional information on each of these prospects and please feel free to drop a question in the comments about any prospects/teams you may be interested in!

Dallas Baptist RHP Micah Bucknam: Bucknam has made himself a lot of money this season. Through 52 IP, Bucknam is posting a 32% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate. He’s been up to 96 mph and his four-pitch mix is highlighted by his money maker pitch, the slider. With plus whiff rates across his repertoire, the former LSU pitcher has emerged as the ace of DBU’s staff.

Dallas Baptist RHP James Ellwanger: Ellwanger’s fastball is now averaging 95.5 mph (up more than 1 mph from last year), his slider is up almost 4 mph (88 mph), and he’s striking out 34% of batters he’s faced. However, he continues to be handled with extreme caution after last year’s injury- 29.2 IP through 9 starts. Since throwing four shutout innings with 9 K/1 BB against Middle Tennessee a few weeks ago, Ellwanger has had back-to-back rough outings that’s seen his walk rate climb to nearly 15%. He was able to rebound this weekend with a 4 IP, 1 R, 9 K performance against Jacksonsville State. The ceiling is still very attractive, but he may not be pitching his way into the top 30-40 picks like some thought he would this season.

Florida State OF Max Williams: One of the bigger power bats in the draft, Williams has matched his 14 HR from last season in about 70 fewer at-bats and has slashed his strikeout rate from 21% to 14%. With a 114+ max EV, the corner outfielder is an attractive left-handed hitting bat.

Florida State SS Alex Lodise/Georgia Tech SS Kyle Lodise: The Lodise cousins have seen their stocks soar this season. Alex was recently named Baseball America’s Midseason Player of the Year after hitting 12 home runs with a .448 average through 32 games. Despite a 34% chase rate, Alex has seen the strikeout rate drop to 22%. His max EV has climbed from 105 to 110+ this season and the highlight reel of defensive plays at SS is long. As for Kyle, the D2 transfer has 13 HR on the year with a 15% walk and strikeout rate. Safe to say his D2 -> ACC transition is going well. He’s up to 32 total extra-base hits in 32 games played.

UVA OF Henry Ford: Ford has been able to hit for a high average this season, but was sitting at just 2 home runs through 29 games after hitting 17 as a freshman last year. He now has 3 HR in his last 4 games, including 2 in one game last weekend against NC State and a walk-off this weekend against Pittsburgh. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him help power UVA to a fun end of season run.

Tennessee IF Andrew Fischer: It’s easy to get overlooked in a lineup with Gavin Killen and Dean Curley, but Andrew Fischer is on a scorched-earth tour and leaving the ashes of SEC pitchers along the way. He’s up to 14 home runs now with a swing designed to turn baseballs into dust, all while rocking a 25% walk rate and 12% strikeout rate.

Arkansas OF Charles Davalan: The draft-eligible sophomore has 12 home runs this season. He also has 12 strikeouts. The Florida Gulf Coast transfer has put up max EV’s north of 110 mph and has shown exquisite swing decisions, including lowering his chase rate. The numbers and data were already good at FGCU, but he’s now an improved bat in the heart of one of the top SEC lineups. Buy all the Charles Davalan stock you can now.

Arkansas LHP Zach Root: My viewing of Root came a month ago against Ole Miss, his first SEC start. It was a bit of a disaster (3 IP, 10 H, 7 R, 2 BB, 3 K), but he’s been on a tear ever since. Root combined to pitch 14.1 IP against South Carolina and Vanderbilt, allowing 2 ER with 14 K. He has 7 K’s in each of his last four outings. He has his overall K rate up to 32%, his walk rate down to 8%, and he’s sporting a 2.62 FIP, a full run lower than his ERA.

California Baptist OF Nick Dumesnil: One of my favorite targets entering the season, Dumesnil is having a fine season, but not one that is cementing himself as a first-round pick. His speed, power, and defensive abilities in CF are going to be very attractive on draft day, but after his breakout last year and big summer in the Cape Cod League, it would have been nice to see him really dominate other mid-major programs. He’s hitting .320 with a 120 wRC+, 9.5% walk rate, and a 23% K rate, which is up from his 13% K rate last season.

USC LHP Caden Hunter: When I watched Hunter back in February, I said I would drive the Caden Hunter hype train myself if I needed to. Hunter was pitching in the D2 ranks last year and is USC’s Friday night arm this season, successfully navigating his way through the Big 10. His last outing was a 7 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 9 K performance against Penn State. Hunter can run his fastball up to 95 mph with 20-22 inches of IVB and he very quickly established himself as one of the top arms in the Big 10 (still feels like an alternate reality to refer to USC as a Big 10 program).

Texas LHP Jared Spencer: Not only are the Orioles good at identifying and developing pitching talent, but they don’t get enough credit for having pitchers with fabulous lettuce. Drafting Jared Spencer should be a priority. Also because he’s very good on the mound. He opened up SEC play by allowing 13 R on 20 hits against Mississippi State, LSU, and Missouri, but has since held a truly elite Georgia offense to one run on two hits, while striking out 11 across 7.2 IP. He then limited Kentucky to one run on four hits while striking out seven. Overall, the Indiana State transfer is striking out 30.5% of hitters with a career-low 10% walk rate. Even if he’s likely a reliever at the next level, his upper-90s fastball and bullet slider are two massive weapons.

The massive injured list:

The below group of players are all currently injured, but it’s too early to tell how much of an impact it will have on their draft status.

RHP Evan Chrest (Florida State)- The report out of FSU is that he’s done for the year and “has a decision to make.” Not good.
RHP Matthew Matthijs (UNC)- One of the top bullpen arms in the ACC, Matthijs was up to 30 K in 18.2 innings of work (35% K rate), but felt something while throwing a warm-up pitch in a recent outing. As of April 11th, UNC was waiting for swelling to go down to get another look and better understanding of the injury.
IF Cade Kurland (Florida)- Kurland injured his shoulder making a diving play at second base early in the year and won’t return. He was showing improved swing-and-miss numbers in the Cape and to start the 2025 regular season, while showcasing the quality oppo-juice from his smaller frame, but after appearing in just 14 games as a draft-eligible sophomore, Kurland could easily decide to return to school and look to improve his stock with a healthy campaign.
LHP Pierce Coppola (Florida)- Back and shoulder injuries have hindered his entire college career and an injury has sidelined him again this season. He’s throwing on flat ground right now, but the extensive injury history may be too much to overlook, no matter how good his stuff is.
OF Ethan Conrad (Wake Forest)- Conrad injured his shoulder making a defensive play a few weeks ago. The Marist transfer was having a quality season, cementing himself as a first-round pick, but he’s now been shut down for the rest of the season.
OF Max Belyeu (Texas)- Another potential first-round OF prospect, Belyeu had thumb surgery recently and is out for the season. He could possibly return if Texas makes a late tournament run.
OF Brendan Summerhill (Arizona)- One of the top college OF prospects in the class, Summerhill has been out for about two weeks and will miss at least another two weeks due to a hand injury. His stock was rising quickly after showcasing more game power and elite batted-ball data. While many of the top college prospects projected to go early in round one struggle, Summerhill was surging up boards.
RHP Michael Salina (St. Bonaventure)- I haven’t written about Salina yet, but was going to include him in last week’s 7 Fun Mid-Major Arms To Know For The 2025 MLB Draft, but he just underwent TJ surgery and is done for the year. He was having a dominant year, sitting in the mid-90s and touching 102 mph this season.
Previous draft notebooks:

Orioles On the Verge Substack

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