Re-visiting 2024 Orioles draft targets, plus new names

The 2024 MLB Draft is quicky approaching

Written by: Nick Stevens

With the 2024 MLB Draft quickly approaching, it’s a good time to revisit the handful of players I highlighted back in February/early March, and check in on them now that the college season is winding down, see where their draft stock is, and let’s go ahead and add a few names I’m watching closely as potential targets of the Baltimore Orioles. 

Update on previously highlighted players:

(You can revisit my previous pieces here and here)

TCU SS Anthony Silva- Silva was my draft crush in February and while he could still be a quality round 2-3 option, he very likely isn’t a first-rounder anymore. While his BB rate is up to over 12%, his K rate is up and the power surge he displayed late last season and back in February never materialized, hitting just 3 up to this point with a .248 average. Once considered a strength, he’s reportedly struggled against high velo this season, but the glove remains elite. 

UVA SS Griff O’Ferrall- Ranked 49th on Kiley McDaniel’s latest draft rankings, O’Ferrall is striking out at a 6.8% clip this season with 4 HR (just 3 career HR entering this season). He’s one of the better hitters in this draft class, is a true SS prospect, and may not be the fastest but has stolen 48 career bases at an 86% success rate. I could see a team (maybe not the Orioles) willing to reach on O’Ferrall to make sure they walk away from the draft with a college SS.

LHP Cam Caminiti- The high school arm dominated his way to a state championship (hitting 97 mph) and is now viewed as a potential Top 10 pick, but could slide due to signing bonus demands. Baseball America recently slotted Caminiti to the Orioles at #32 (PPI pick) noting it very likely won’t happen, but you never know how his bonus demand could shake things up. 

Tennessee RHP Drew Beam- Likely a second-rounder now, Beam has posted a career-low 2.06 BB/9 (2.34/9 career rate across three seasons). His deep pitch mix, hoppy 95mph fastball, super low walk numbers, and workhorse frame remain very intriguing as a potential quick riser.

ECU RHP Trey Yesavage- 10-1 with a 2.13 ERA and 132 K in 80 IP. He’s going to be a Top 10-12 pick and won’t make it the Orioles. Damnit. Will very likely become my favorite non-Orioles prospect.

Duke LHP Jonathan Santucci- Came out of the gates blazing hot after missing most of ‘23 with an injury, but while he’s striking out nearly 14/9 IP and hitters are only hitting .189 against him, he’s walking a career-high 5.46/9 IP. I still think he’s a really fun conversation for the Orioles in round one. (Currently out 1-2 weeks with a rib injury)

FSU OF James Tibbs- .385 BA. 36 BB. 21 K. 21 HR. Good contact rates and low chase rates as well this season. If he makes it to the Orioles at 22, I’m snap picking him. He’s limited defensively but Elias has me pilled on this type of prospect now.

Now some new names:

Oklahoma State OF Carson Benge-

Is it an Orioles draft if they don’t go to the Oklahoma State connection? How about trying the two-way thing again with an OSU player (god Nolan McLean looks good in the Mets system). Benge is pitching to a 2.45 ERA and 30/8 K/BB with a fastball that runs up to 96 mph, but he’s a tantalizing bat with big time power potential from the left side. 

Through 50 games, Benge is hitting .328 with 15 HR, 20 doubles, and more walks than strikeouts (40/43 K/BB). Despite being listed at 6’1” and 184 pounds, I’ve seen 60-grade power potential put on Benge, along with a 60-grade hit tool and outfield arm. With a 90th percentile EV north of 108 mph and low chase rates combined with an elite in-zone contact rate, Benge is a fascinating left-handed hitter who would be a great fit in the Orioles system.

UNC OF Vance Honeycutt-

Coming into the year, Honeycutt was being mentioned as a 1.1 sleeper. The 21-year-old (just turned 21 on May 17th) has 59 home runs across three seasons at North Carolina, bringing plus-power and defensive grades to the field (60 grade power, 60+ grade arm/speed/and defense). The power and potential Gold Glove-caliber defense as a center fielder is very enticing.

Unfortunately, Honeycutt strikes out a ton, more than 25% of the time this season, and his 68% contact rate and 25% chase rate is rough. As noted by Joe Doyle at Future Stars Series, Honeycutt’s hit tool could be a 30-grade with potential for 40-grade. He’s now looking like a mid to late first rounder with the hit tool and strikeout concerns. 

Picking 22nd in a year with a draft class considered less than impressive compared to recent classes is likely going to leave the Orioles with a player who brings an intriguing upside, but huge question marks. Players like Santucci and Honeycutt (and another arm I’m bringing up later) make for a very fun conversation this year heading into the draft.

Mississippi State OF Dakota Jordan-

Can I interest anyone in a young, 21-year-old SEC bat who hits nukes? Jordan entered the 2024 season ranking among the top five in the nation in 90th percentile EV (112 mph) and max EV (118 mph). That’s led to 17 home runs this year as a sophomore. As a freshman, Jordan hit 10 HR with a .972 OPS in the SEC and is now posting an OPS over 1.100 in year two. The 6’0” 220 pound outfielder gets to his plus-power with what many note as one of the quickest bats in the entire country. Would love to see him on Baseball Savant’s new bat tracking leaderboard. 

The big issue with Jordan is his strikeout rate, which is currently sitting at 28%. (Insert Santander “oof” pic here). MLB Pipeline notes a 25% strikeout rate on breaking balls specifically. You know who showed tremendous improvements recently in hitting breaking balls? Another right-handed slugger named Coby Mayo. If Jordan checks a lot of other boxes for the Orioles, I wonder if they would consider Jordan here. 

Iowa RHP Brody Brecht-

I feel like Brecht has been at Iowa forever, but that’s because he’s been an electric pitching prospect with a 100+ mph fastball and big control questions for a while now. 

In MLB Pipeline’s latest mock draft, they have the Orioles going with Brecht at 22 and he’s being mocked around this pick in others. As noted by Baseball America, Brecht had just a 58% strike percentage with 23 walks through the first month of the season but “since April 1, he has a 61% strike rate, a 59-17 strikeout-to-walk ratio and has a .133 opponents average.” 

The 6’4” righty has walked more than 7/9 IP over this career at Iowa, and while his command/control aren’t in the same conversation, his pure stuff, according to some, is arguably some of the best stuff the college game has ever seen. Is the fastball/slider combo truly elite enough to stomach his control as a starter? The metrics say yes, but would a team like the Orioles be comfortable enough to go with Brecht here? 

He’s shown great improvements as the season has progressed and the Orioles are now considered one of the top organizations for developing pitchers. There will likely be many safer options to go with here if the Orioles go pitcher in the first round, but I would do illegal things to be a fly on the wall in the Orioles war room if Brecht is available at 22. I need to be sold on going this route, but am in love of the idea of the Orioles turning Brecht into a major league starter and the pitching development earning even more respect.